Buffalo Bills at Miami Dolphins odds, picks and predictions

January 7, 2024 Admin

The Buffalo Bills (10-6) and Miami Dolphins (11-5) meet Sunday to battle for the AFC East title. Kickoff from Hard Rock Stadium is set for 8:20 p.m. ET (NBC). Below, we analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Bills vs. Dolphins odds, and make our expert NFL picks and predictions.

Buffalo picked up a sloppy 27-21 win over the New England Patriots Sunday while failing to cover as a 14.5-point favorite. Buffalo was able to force 4 turnovers vs. New England that proved to be crucial for the win. The Bills have won 4 consecutive games and have scored 27 or more points in 2 of their last 3 games.

Miami was routed 56-19 by the Baltimore Ravens Sunday while failing to cover as a 3-point underdog. Miami’s defense allowed the Ravens to gain 491 yards of total offense and forced only 1 turnover while Miami’s offense turned the ball over 3 times vs. Baltimore.

The Dolphins have led the AFC East for most of the season, but the winner of this game will take home the division title.

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Bills at Dolphins odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Saturday at 9:54 p.m. ET.

Moneyline (ML): Bills -150 (bet $150 to win $100) | Dolphins +125 (bet $100 to win $125)
Against the spread (ATS): Bills -3 (-105) | Dolphins +3 (-115)
Over/Under (O/U): 48 (O: -110 | U: -110)

Bills at Dolphins key injuries

Bills

Dolphins

RB De’Von Achane (toe/rib) questionable
OT Terron Armstead (knee/ankle/back) questionable
LB Jerome Baker (knee) questionable
LB Bradley Chubb (knee) out
G Lester Cotton (hip) questionable
OL Liam Eichenberg (calf/ankle) questionable
WR Tyreek Hill (ankle/personal) questionable
S Jevon Holland (knee) questionable
CB Xavien Howard (foot) out
G Robert Hunt (hamstring) questionable
OT Austin Jackson (oblique) questionable
LB David Long Jr. (knee) questionable
RB Raheem Mostert (knee/ankle) questionable
LB Duke Riley (ankle) questionable
WR Jaylen Waddle (ankle) questionable

Bills at Dolphins picks and predictions

Prediction

Bills 32, Dolphins 30

Moneyline

BET BILLS (-150).

Buffalo is the hotter team, being on a 4-game win streak while Miami just suffered its worst loss of the season. The Bills have also dominated Miami in recent matchups, having won in each of their last 3 meetings with the Dolphins and being 9-1 in their last 10 vs. Miami.

Buffalo has a lot of momentum heading into this matchup, and I expect the Bills to pick up this win and the division title.

Against the spread

LEAN DOLPHINS +3 (-115).

Miami is a slightly better ATS team than Buffalo as the Dolphins have covered ATS in 2 of their last 3 while Buffalo has dropped back-to-back games ATS. Miami is also 3-1 ATS in its last 4 meetings with Buffalo and is the better ATS team this season, being 10-6 while the Bills are 6-9-1.

Over/Under

BET OVER 48 (-110).

Buffalo beatMiami 48-20 in Week 4 and the Over has hit in each of the last 3 meetings and is 7-3 in the last 10 meetings overall. The Over hit in Miami’s last game and is 9-7 for the Dolphins this season. The Over has also hit in each of the Bills’ last 2 games.

Buffalo has had key defensive players out all season, and Miami is missing both of its best edge rushers, so both offenses should be able to put up points in this matchup.

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