Can the Buffalo Bills Catch the Miami Dolphins?

The race for the AFC East is accelerating as we enter Week 16. The Miami Dolphins have a two-game lead over the Buffalo Bills, but with three weeks remaining, a lot could still happen. The Bills will very much believe they remain in the fight for the division, while Miami knows that two wins from their remaining three will shut out the Bills altogether.

Using the free PFN NFL Playoff Predictor, let’s examine the potential scenarios that could play out in the AFC East this week, and what it could all mean in the race for the No. 1 seed in the AFC.

AFC East Playoff Chances | Week 16 Update

Note that this article was originally published on Saturday, Dec. 23 at 8:10 a.m. before Saturday’s games began. The results of this week’s games are below and will continue to be updated throughout the day.

After the Saturday games in Week 16, the Dolphins remain the No. 2 seed in the AFC, with the Bills the No. 6 seed.

Saturday Games Update
Steelers (8-7) defeated Bengals (8-7)
Bills (9-6) defeated Chargers (5-10)

Keep reading below to see the playoff scenarios for the AFC North entering Week 16. And head over to PFN’s free NFL Playoff Predictor to test various scenarios and see how they change the playoff picture.

What Are the AFC East Playoff Scenarios for the Miami Dolphins and Buffalo Bills?

Entering Week 16, the Dolphins sit at 10-4 with the Bills at 8-6, which ESPN’s Football Power Index views as a 68.4% chance of Miami winning the division and 31.6% for Buffalo.

The Bills will get the chance to strike the first blow this week when they face the 5-9 Los Angeles Chargers in SoFi Stadium. A win for the Bills would mount the pressure on the Dolphins.

MORE: Miami Dolphins Playoff Scenarios

However, if Buffalo loses, they give Miami the chance to sew up the division when they host the Dallas Cowboys on Sunday. All the Dolphins need to do in Week 16 is better the Bills result, and the division is theirs. Entering Week 17, they would have an unassailable lead of more than two games with just two to play.

Even if both teams have the same result in Week 16, the Dolphins will still have a chance to clinch the division when they face the Baltimore Ravens in Week 17.

The problem for Miami comes if they head to Week 18 owning the same record as Buffalo, with a head-to-head matchup lined up in Hard Rock Stadium.

The Bills beat the Dolphins 48-20 back in Week 4, giving them a crucial 1-0 advantage in terms of their head-to-head. If the Bills win again in Week 18, they will be 2-0 against the Dolphins this year and have the all-important first NFL playoff tiebreaker in their favor. Therefore, if Buffalo and Miami end up tied on 10 or 11 wins, the Bills would take the division.

The Dolphins can prevent this from becoming a conversation entering Week 18 if they win the next two. The best the Bills can do is 11 wins this season. Wins in Week 16 and Week 17 would give the Dolphins a two-game advantage with one to play, removing any doubt over the division.

The other scenario that could play out here is the Dolphins losing to the Cowboys and Ravens in the next two weeks, while the Bills beat the Chargers and New England Patriots. That would leave both teams at 10-6 entering Week 18 and make that game a winner-take-all affair.

Can the Dolphins or Bills Clinch the AFC No. 1 Seed?

As we head into the start of Week 16, Buffalo and Miami can both still end up as the No. 1 seed. The Dolphins are one game behind the Ravens, but face off against them in Week 17.

If Miami goes 3-0, the AFC No. 1 seed is theirs. However, if they lose to Baltimore, it’s over, regardless of anything else that happens.

MORE: PFN’s FREE NFL Playoff Predictor

The Dolphins could conceivably get the No. 1 seed if they go 2-1, as long as that loss is not to the Ravens. They would need Baltimore to lose at least one more game than their Week 17 encounter across the last three weeks.

Additionally, Miami would need Kansas City to lose another game as the Chiefs would hold both the head-to-head and conference record tiebreakers in the event of a two- or three-way tie.

Meanwhile, the Bills could be eliminated from contention this week in several scenarios:

1) The Bills fail to win
2) The Ravens win or tie
3) The Dolphins win or tie
4) The Jacksonville Jaguars lose or tie
5) The Ravens clinch the strength of victory tiebreaker over the Bills

The first three scenarios are self-explanatory, but after that, it all starts becoming about the strength of victory and the strength of schedule tiebreakers for Buffalo. From the Bills’ perspective, their focus has to be going 3-0.

If they do that and the Ravens, Dolphins, Chiefs, and Cleveland Browns all drop enough games, Buffalo could have a Wild Card Weekend bye. It’s a remote chance, but it’s there.

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