Miami vs. Louisville point spread: Picking Hurricanes vs. Cardinals

Week 12 Picks: Louisville vs Miami | Andy Staples | 11.13.23

Louisville can clinch its spot in the ACC Championship Game with a win against Miami on Saturday. The Cardinals couldn’t have asked for a better start to the Jeff Brohm era, going 9-1 to this point with a big win against perennial power Notre Dame.

Now they’ll aim to take down another prestigious program when they face the Hurricanes on Saturday in a game where they open as 1.5-point favorites on the road. On3‘s Andy Staples and Josh Newberg teamed up to break down the matchup on Staples’ podcast Monday and make their picks.

With Miami coming off a heartbreaking 27-20 loss to Florida State this weekend, Newberg sees it being difficult for it to bounce back. That game saw quarterback Tyler Van Dyke, who has benched in favor of freshman Emory Williams, get a chance to tie the game at the end after Williams suffered an injury.

Unfortunately, Van Dyke ended up throwing his 12th interception of the season as the Hurricanes went on to lose.

“The offense has take a step back this year, Tyler Van Dyke especially,” Newberg said. “You saw what happened against Florida State. Tyler Van Dyke had a chance. He had an opportunity to rewrite his story. The last 10 interceptions that he had are all forgiven if he can lead that offense down. His story is forever changed. You know the magnitude of what a big performance can do in a rivalry game in the state of Florida and Tyler Van Dyke had that opportunity.

“Who would’ve ever thought that the Canes would be down a score in the final drive of the game and Tyler Van Dyke would be at the helm? He had the chance and it didn’t work out. I think this team is dejected. I think they’re down. I think they’re hurt. Frankly, they’re just not very good this year. I think Louisville takes it to ’em at home.”

The loss was another punch in the gut in what has been a tough season for Miami. The Hurricanes went 4-0 to start the regular season and rose up to No. 17 in the AP poll, but have since gone 2-4 in ACC play. The offense, a middling 44th in the country with Van Dyke barely throwing more touchdowns (16) than picks (12) has taken the brunt of the blame.

It’s been the opposite story in Louisville, where the Cardinals have been one of the bigger surprises of this season. Although they fell flat to lose to Pittsburgh after beating the Fighting Irish, they’ve bounced back to win three straight since.

Louisville survived a late rally from Virginia to come back and win by a score of 31-24 this past week thanks to a 73-yard touchdown run from Isaac Guerendo. The Cardinals have never made the ACC title game since joining the conference in 2014.

However, with the momentum from last week’s win, Staples agrees with Newberg that Louisville can beat Miami to get there.

“The thing about Louisville is they seem to have these kind of dips because they’re new at this,” he said. “They’re learning how to be successful. You saw the struggle against Pitt coming from a mile away after the Notre Dame win. I think you might be right about this. Louisville figured out how to win that game (against Virginia) and this feels like one of the ones where they’ve had their struggled and now they’re gonna blow the doors off somebody.

“So I’m with you. I’ll take Louisville to win this. It’s crazy what Jeff Brohm’s done there. When he got hired, I was like, ‘he’s gonna have them be a force in the ACC in about three years.’ I didn’t think it was gonna happen this soon.”

A Louisville alum, Brohm found great success over six seasons at Purdue in leading the Boilermakers to a Big Ten Championship appearance last season. Now he has a chance to do the same with his alma mater. Regardless, fans have to be happy with the turnaround he’s done and where the future of the program stands.

Kickoff between Louisville and Miami is set for noon ET on Saturday in Coral Gables.