Miami Football Game Preview: Week Eleven vs. Florida State

Miami plays its annual meeting with hated rival Florida State on Saturday and will hope to play spoiler to FSU’s undefeated season.

Miami (6-3, 2-3 ACC) suffered its third loss of the season last week to NC State, 20-6, while Florida State (9-0, 7-0 ACC) continued with an unblemished record, taking down Pitt 24-7.

When: Saturday, November 11th

Time: 3:30 PM Eastern

Where to Watch: ABC

Line: Florida State -14

Moneyline: Florida State -628 | Miami (FL) +455

Over/Under: 51.5

– Out of 67 matchups between Florida State and Miami, 32 have been decided by one score, three points have determined 19, and a single point has decided nine games.

– Since 1995, there has only been one period in which a team was not on a win streak in the series (2007-2009). Florida State is currently on a two-game win streak.

– Last year’s 42-3 Florida State win was the largest road victory in series history, while in 2020, Miami scored its most-ever points against the Seminoles (52).

– Miami (FL)’s ATS record is 4-4-0 this season.

– Miami (FL) has hit the over in five of their eight games with a set total (62.5%).

– Florida State is 6-3 against the spread (ATS) this season

– Miami is 2-1 ATS as an underdog this season

– Miami has gone OVER in all three games as an underdog

Jordan Travis, Quarterback

The sixth-year quarterback has developed into an NFL-worthy type signal caller over the years. The redshirt senior has turned it up a notch in his last four games against Syracuse, Duke, Wake Forest, and Pittsburgh.

Travis has completed 93 of 144 passes (65%) for 1,271 yards, seven touchdowns, and one interception and added 71 rushing yards and five scores on the ground in that span.

On the season, Travis has completed 64.4% of his passes for 2,469 yards, 19 touchdowns, and two interceptions and has added seven rushing scores. He also has three 300-yard passing games this season, including 342 yards in the season-opening win over LSU. He’s coming off back-to-back 300-yard games against Wake (359) and Pitt (360).

In the 24-7 win over Pitt last week, Travis arguably put together his best performance, as he threw for his season high in yardage and the third-highest in his career despite being without standout receivers Keon Coleman and Johnny Wilson.

According to USA Betting, Travis has the fourth-best odds to win the Heisman.

Keon Coleman, Wide Receiver

Coleman has been the top target for Travis this season. The Michigan State transfer leads the team with 38 catches for 538 yards and nine touchdowns across eight games. He has added 198 yards on 20 punt returns in 2023. Coleman was a late scratch against Pitt last week, but Head Coach Mike Norvell is optimistic about his return from injury.

“He’s doing good,” Norvell said this week. “We’re obviously continuing to see as guys progress during the week exactly where they’ll be at. But I think we’re seeing positive strides with a lot of guys.”

Wide receiver Wilson’s (6’7″, 223 pounds) return for the Miami game is also questionable. He’s been out since suffering an injury against Duke on Oct. 21st. Wilson has 25 catches for 415 yards and two TDs this season. Both were practicing this week.

Coleman has three multi-touchdown games this season – he caught three in his FSU debut against No. 5 LSU and added two more at Clemson and Wake Forest. His second touchdown catch at Clemson was in overtime, leading FSU to its first road overtime win in school history.

Coleman joined Peter Warrick as the only player in Florida State history with 100 receiving and 100 punt return yards in the same game when he caught nine passes for 140 yards and added 107 punt return yards against Syracuse. Coleman caught a career-long 58-yard touchdown and returned a punt 72 yards against the Orange.

Against LSU to begin the season, Coleman caught nine passes for 122 yards and three touchdowns, the most in FSU history for a player making his Seminole debut.

Trey Benson, Running Back

The Seminole running back nearly had 1,000 yards last season, rushing for 990. Last week, Benson had ten carries for 38 rushing yards (3.8 YPC) before he broke loose for the 55-yard touchdown to give the Seminoles a 24-7 lead with 1:11 left in the third quarter.

The talented back now has 97 carries for 641 yards and eight touchdowns. He’s a powerful runner (6’1″, 223 pounds) who can break loose on any play. In last year’s meeting, the Oregon transfer had 15 carries for 128 yards and two touchdowns against his former head coach, Mario Cristobal.

Jared Verse, Defensive Lineman

Verse brings a scary pass-rush with various moves and polished techniques. His explosive first step is disrupting offensive linemen’s rhythm off the snap.

Verse was Pro Football Network’s top EDGE prospect in the 2024 NFL Draft, entering the year after amassing nine sacks and 17 tackles for loss in his 2022 campaign.

So far this year, the 6’4″, 249-pound Verse has 4.5 sacks and 6.5 tackles for loss, and he’s coming off a game against Wake Forest where he notched two quarterback takedowns.

Starting Quarterback Tyler Van Dyke put together his worst performance last week against NC State, scoring a season-low 30.2 QB rating. Van Dyke threw three interceptions and also lost a fumble against the Wolfpack.

The coaches hinted at possibly making a change at quarterback, but there is no absolute certainty that Miami will make the move for backup Emory Williams.

Van Dyke has thrown ten interceptions in four conference games. Williams managed a win over Clemson, but thoughts of putting a true freshman in a hostile environment seem terrifying.

Also, we have not seen third-string quarterback Jacurri Brown take the field this season. Brown saw action in eight games last season and made two starts. He threw for 230 yards on 27-for-45 passing (60.0 percent) with three touchdowns and three interceptions.

However, Brown can be a running threat, as he rushed for 223 yards last year, which was third most among all players.

If Miami chooses to throw Van Dyke out there, he has to start the game clean and not make critical mistakes, particularly in the first half. TVD has thrown an interception in the first half in every conference he’s played this season except for UNC; Miami is 1-3 in those games.

Florida State ranks 24th in passing yards allowed, 192.3 per game, and 35th in total defense, allowing 332.6 per contest.

Miami has the advantage regarding rushing offense (Miami ranks 39th with 176.6 per game to Florida State, ranking 58th with 164.4 per game) and rushing defense (Miami ranks 7th, allowing 89.2 per game to Florida State, ranking 58th allowing 140.2 per game).

The Hurricanes also hold the advantage in time of possession nationally (20th to 63rd). Miami needs to limit the number of possessions of Florida State’s high-powered offense, which ranks 17th in the nation in total offense and 9th in scoring offense.

Miami’s chances of winning this game in a shootout are slim, given Miami’s offensive woes in its last five games (23 points per game). Florida State has scored 36.6 points in its previous five games.

The Hurricanes can pull off the upset if Miami can slow the game, limit the mistakes, and get off the field in critical third-down situations.

Florida State is one of the best teams in the nation regarding third down conversion defense, ranking 7th with opponents only converting 28 percent of its chances. Miami ranks 39th nationally at 36 percent.

The Hurricanes will need to be successful early in stopping the Seminoles on third down because UM is not built to come back in games. If the Noles get rolling early, it will be tough for any quarterback to come back from a deficit at Doak Campbell Stadium.

Offensively, both teams mirror each other regarding third down conversions, with both teams converting at 43 percent.

Miami will need to contain Travis on QB runs. The Seminoles run Travis in many designed runs, and he can improvise in passing situations. The Seminole QB has seven rushing touchdowns this season, already matching his total from the previous three seasons.

It’s hard to believe that Miami can flip the switch at the quarterback position from what we’ve seen in the last five games, which has been below average. Miami has the talent to keep up with Florida State, and the adrenaline and excitement of the game should provide some fireworks, but maintaining that for 60 minutes will be a tall task.

I certainly believe the Hurricane can keep the score closer than the 14-point spread suggests, but so many things have to go right that have gone wrong in the last five games for Miami to win.

Many will have reason to believe if we see several offensive touches for Brown and Wide Receiver Brashard Smith. The defense has the ability to contain FSU to a 24-point total like Pitt did last week, but can the Canes score 25 or more?

No evidence from the last five games tells you the offense will return to its early-season form against the 4th ranked team in the country, but stranger things have happened in this rivalry.