Inter Miami MLS playoff scenarios: What are the chances of Lionel Messi reaching the postseason?

Lionel Messi has done his best to will Inter Miami to the Major League Soccer playoffs, but the late charge may fall just short.

When the Argentine joined the club in the summer, Inter Miami sat bottom of the Eastern Conference with the playoffs just a speck on the horizon, but his efforts have spurred the team towards an improbable spot in the postseason.

However, an injury to Messi has seen the team regress into negative results that have left them on the precipice of elimination as the regular season barrels towards a conclusion.

They face FC Cincinnati on October 7 in what is likely to be a pivotal match in their quest to reach the playoffs. It remains to be seen whether Messi himself will be risked for such an important game.

With just three matches remaining, The Sporting News brings you all the possibilities for Inter Miami to reach the postseason, or be eliminated from contention.

MORE: All the latest news and updates on Lionel Messi’s injury and status for Inter Miami

Inter Miami playoff scenarios: What they need to clinch

A lot has to happen over the final three matches of the season for Inter Miami to snatch a spot in the MLS playoff race. Lionel Messi’s club currently sit in 14th place, needing to climb to at least ninth to reach the postseason.

With just three games remaining, Inter Miami need not only a near-perfect finish to the regular season, but also a lot of help as well. They must leap no fewer than five clubs at minimum to reach the postseason and have a chance at the MLS Cup.

For starters, they almost surely have to win out. Sitting five points back of the final playoff spot, it’s hard to imagine that anything short of nine points would see Inter Miami climb the necessary spots to earn a postseason berth.

Additionally, they need FC Montreal (who currently sit in the final playoff spot in ninth), NYCFC, D.C. United, New York Red Bulls, and Charlotte FC all to drop as many points as possible to aid their chase.

If Inter Miami do not collect all three points in their upcoming match against FC Cincinnati, they could face elimination before even taking the field again.

MORE: Lionel Messi called up by Argentina national team despite injury troubles

Eastern Conference table, standings

Standings updated as of Friday, October 6, 2023.

Pos.	Team	GP	Pts	W-D-L	GD
1.	FC Cincinnati	32	65	19-8-5	+17
2.	Orlando City	32	57	16-9-7	+13
3.	Philadelphia	32	54	15-9-8	+17
4.	Columbus Crew	32	53	15-8-9	+20
6.	Atlanta United	32	49	13-10-9	+13
5.	New England	31	52	14-10-7	+13
7.	Nashville SC	30	45	12-9-9	+8
9.	FC Montreal	32	38	11-5-16	-18
10.	NYCFC	32	38	8-14-10	-3
—-	———————	—	—	——	—
11.	D.C. United	33	37	9-10-14	-6
12.	NY Red Bulls	32	37	9-10-13	-7
8.	Chicago Fire	32	40	10-10-12	-9
13.	Charlotte FC	31	36	8-12-11	-10
14.	Inter Miami	31	33	9-6-16	-11
15.	Toronto FC	32	22	4-10-18	-28

How would Inter Miami be eliminated from MLS playoff race?

Thanks to a string of negative results with Messi on the sidelines, Inter Miami hang on the edge of elimination from MLS postseason contention.

Should they fail to beat FC Cincinnati on Saturday, they could be eliminated from the race with a combination of negative results outside their control.

If Inter Miami draw or lose to FC Cincinnati, they would be eliminated with two of the following three possible results: FC Montreal beats Portland Timbers; NYCFC wins versus D.C. United; and Chicago Fire picks up points against Charlotte FC.

Those results are all certainly conceivable, and thus if Inter Miami do not beat FC Cincinnati, it could spell the end of the road for their postseason hopes.

MORE: Lionel Messi’s full injury history with Barcelona, PSG, Inter Miami, and Argentina

Inter Miami remaining schedule compared to MLS playoff rivals

Inter Miami do not have a favorable finish to the MLS season and their playoff chase.

With three matches left, they do have a game in hand on most of their postseason rivals, but they are facing a very difficult home match against FC Cincinnati who recently secured the Supporters’ Shield as the best regular-season team in MLS with games to spare.

However, FC Cincinnati have looked vulnerable at times down the stretch, clinching the regular-season crown despite defeat to the New York Red Bulls last time out, and in recent games they’ve barely beaten basement-dwellers Toronto FC 3-2, drawn with FC Montreal, and lost to Orlando City.

Should they remain in the mix after that game, Inter Miami will finish with a pair of matches against Charlotte FC, including a makeup game that was rescheduled to accommodate Inter Miami’s run to the Leagues Cup title.

Inter Miami remaining MLS schedule

Remaining opponents for Inter Miami playoff rivals

FC Montreal: vs. Portland Timbers, at Columbus Crew.
NYCFC: at D.C. United, vs. Chicago Fire.
D.C. United: vs. NYCFC.
NY Red Bulls: vs. Toronto FC, at Nashville SC.
Charlotte FC: at Chicago Fire, at Inter Miami, vs. Inter Miami.