When will Messi play again? Inter Miami’s MLS season hangs in the balance

As the Inter Miami players filtered off the team bus and out to the field at DRV PNK Stadium on Wednesday night and Lionel Messi was not among those to disembark, the reality started to hit: If Miami wanted to win its second trophy of the year, it would have to do so without its biggest star.

Messi, wearing a black, short-sleeved button-down shirt and black jeans, arrived with his family 20 minutes later. But even with the star in the building, Inter Miami fans were left to wonder: Just how long will his absence continue, and exactly how much will the Herons have to accomplish without the transcendent player that turned around the season?

Inter Miami clearly missed Messi on the field in the U.S. Open Cup final against the Houston Dynamo. They lacked bite in the final third for much of the game, and without having to worry about Messi — or left back Jordi Alba, who sat near Messi in a pitchside suite — the Dynamo controlled much of the first hour of the game before surviving Miami’s late push and taking the Open Cup trophy with a 2-1 win.

“It was not prudent for him to play,” Inter Miami coach Tata Martino said of Messi after the loss. “Too risky, even for a few minutes. He will play in league games going forward, but will go game-by-game based on what the medical team tells us.”

That Miami played for two trophies this season and won one — the club’s first in its short history — most definitely is a huge accomplishment and speaks to Messi’s impact. But now, the final and most difficult task lies ahead. Inter Miami must continue its climb from the bottom of the Eastern Conference standings if it wants to make the playoffs. Inter Miami currently sits in 14th place in MLS’ Eastern Conference, 10 points ahead of woeful Toronto FC, but still five points shy of ninth place and a spot in the postseason play-in game, albeit with games in hand on most of the teams ahead of them.

For now, there’s not much information to go off of when it comes to Messi’s health. The team has repeatedly referred to the issue as “muscle fatigue” without ever calling it an injury or indicating the specific muscle that is giving Messi trouble. But Martino said earlier this week that the team was very much focused on fighting its way to the postseason.

“Obviously the league objective was the most difficult one,” Martino said on Tuesday ahead of the Open Cup final. “But where we are right now, we’re going to keep trying (to make the playoffs).”

Inter Miami has five games remaining in the regular season, including three over the next 10 days, all against Eastern Conference foes. They host NYCFC on Sept. 30, travel to Chicago to play in front of a massive crowd at Soldier Field on Oct. 4 and then host first-place FC Cincinnati on Oct. 7.

The team will then get a welcome break for the October international window, though as the September break showed, multiple Inter Miami players could be away with their respective national teams. Argentina plays Paraguay and Peru in its qualifiers, though it would be unlikely that they would call Messi if he is unable to play for Inter in those three league games leading into the window.

Miami then closes the season with what is essentially a home-and-home with Charlotte FC: a rescheduled game on Oct. 18 in Fort Lauderdale followed by the season-ending game in Charlotte on Decision Day, the last day of MLS’ regular season, on Oct. 21.

Notably, Miami sits just one point behind Charlotte in the Eastern Conference standings, which means those final two games could determine whether or not Miami makes the playoffs. Adding another layer of intrigue is the fact that Charlotte plays on artificial turf, which means Messi might be forced to play on that surface if Miami needs the points to get into the postseason. (Messi said last month that he would have no issues playing on an artificial surface, but did not play in Atlanta due to the aforementioned muscle fatigue.)

When Messi returns to the field will hold huge sway over the playoff picture.

On Tuesday, Messi’s longtime teammate Sergio Busquets said that every day ahead of the final gave more of a chance for Messi to recover and play a role. That, like Martino’s comments post-match, seemed to indicate that Messi’s injury is not severe enough to limit him long-term. But with the October international break two weeks away, Inter Miami may be tempted to shut Messi down until those final two games of the season to see if they can get a full-strength Messi back for the two Charlotte games, and then potentially a playoff run.

At the bare minimum, Martino said on both Tuesday and Wednesday that the team wasn’t yet contemplating shutting Messi down for the season.

“In reality, it doesn’t occur to us that he wouldn’t play the rest of the year,” Martino said on Tuesday. “If we’re here evaluating whether he can play tomorrow or not, in no way are we thinking that he might miss the rest of the league’s games. Of course, the possibility exists that the medical department tells us that we’d be running a risk, we’d eventually decide not to run those risks. But as of today, we don’t consider that possibility of him missing those games.”

That decision becomes a bit more complicated, though, depending on Miami’s results over the next 10 days. If Miami does opt to shut Messi down until after the October international window, Miami could find itself out of the playoff picture by the time those final two games of the season roll around. And if the playoffs are out of the question, it might not be worth it to risk Messi playing in two meaningless games.

It’s worth noting that Argentina plays two crucial World Cup qualifiers in the November international window, however, visiting Brazil on Nov. 20 and then hosting Chile on Nov. 24. Messi will likely be motivated to get fit and return to the field for those games.

The start of Messi’s time in MLS was a dream: 10 goals in his first seven games to win the inaugural Leagues Cup trophy. That run of so many games in a short amount of time, however, caught up to the 36-year-old.

The hope, now, is that the end doesn’t feel more like a nightmare: the loss in the Open Cup final, Messi potentially missing the majority of the remainder of the season and Inter Miami falling short of the playoffs.

(Photo: Hector Vivas/Getty Images)