Does Broncos coach Sean Payton have stomach for full rebuild?
Denver Broncos Head coach Sean Payton is upset with a call during the first half of the game against the Miami Dolphins at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami Gardens, Fla., on Sept. 24, 2023. The Dolphins become 3-0 as they beat the now 0-3 Broncos 70-20 in their NFL Week 3 matchup. (Photo by RJ Sangosti/The Denver Post)
Kiz: I’ve seen some stuff in 40 years covering your Denver Broncos, but never witnessed the Orange get crushed like this. Ten touchdowns? In one game? Are you kidding me? The pattern detected by our friend Tom Green of 9News — 17 points by the Raiders, 35 by the Commanders and 70 by the Dolphins — suggests the Bears might score 140 on the Broncos. How does this Denver defense recover from this debacle? Or should a down-to-the-studs rebuild begin immediately?
Gabriel: If the Bears score 140, Kiz, I’m going to step way out on a limb over Lake Michigan and say the season is a lost cause. A slightly more serious thought: Chicago’s bad. So is Denver. Whichever team loses Sunday is going to have a hard time not thinking about Caleb Williams and the 2024 quarterback class even though both teams thought they were set for the long haul at quarterback — Justin Fields drafted in 2021 and Russell WIlson traded for in 2022. If Denver’s veering toward another top five pick (like the one they didn’t actually get to make last year) in a couple of weeks, the Broncos’ best course of action will be to begin the firesale at the trade deadline.
Kiz: The Broncos couldn’t keep the lid on the back end, set the edge against the run, pressure the quarterback or reliably tackle against the Dolphins. That’s not a bad day at the office, it’s evidence of a lack of talent. Outside of cornerback Pat Surtain II, filling the holes in a defense on the decline since beating Carolina in the Super Bowl has too often required risky, expensive expenditures on veteran free agents rather than the development of young players acquired through the NFL draft.
Gabriel: Correct. Just look at Miami. Tua, first-round pick. Jaylen Waddle, who didn’t even play, first-round pick. Jevon Holland, second-round pick. They gave up a trove of picks for Tyreek Hill and Bradley Chubb, but those moves have worked. Hill spectacularly and Chubb more modestly. And they’ve clearly built with a premium on speed. Where do the Broncos have that? They spent the offseason trying to get bigger and stronger, which they probably did. But this looks more like a lumbering team than a lightning one. It’s impossible to turn that container ship on a dime or in one draft class. It’s going to take re-working, which is partly why A) the franchise has avoided it for so long, and B) if this gets any worse, the process could start sooner rather than later.
Kiz: Every personnel move Payton made after taking the job as coach suggested a belief he could make the Broncos competitive for a playoff spot in 2023. While I admire the ambition, even a knucklehead like me now realizes it wasn’t reasonable to expect this team to win 10 games. Payton insists he won’t fire anybody. But does he have the stomach for a long-term rebuild? If the answer is yes, Denver needs to consider swapping safety Justin Simmons, who celebrates his 30th birthday in November, while he still has value on the trade market.
Gabriel: My hunch is, despite the offseason bluster, Payton knew or at least suspected he had a thin roster even after a big free agency spending spree. He entertained questions in that realm during camp and even acknowledged at one point that he didn’t feel great about where they stood. They just don’t have enough players like P.J. Locke, K’Waun Williams and Caden Sterns — solid, inexpensive, core talents who aren’t All-Pros but can tackle in space and know what they’re doing. And, guess what, all three of those guys are on injured reserve. Payton’s had mediocre teams in the past. Maybe a prime draft slot in April 2024 is his idea of a good time. He got asked about grit Monday and said grit’s required of everybody. Certainly of the head coach the way this thing is headed in the coming, well, weeks? Months? Couple of years?
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