How the Miami Dolphins can beat Denver Broncos on Sunday
The Miami Dolphins come home for the first time this season and can go 3-0 with a win against the 0-2 Denver Broncos. The only caution here is it looks like the easiest game of their short season thus far. Here’s how they can win this time:
1.Keep the offensive train rolling. Lesser quarterbacks Jimmy Garoppolo and Sam Howell completed a combined 72.3 percent of their passes an attempt and four touchdowns and one interception against Denver’s defense. They key stats is they’re giving up a 25th-ranked 7.7 yards an attempt. That tells you plenty about defensive coordinator Vance Joseph’s pass defense right now as Tua Tagovailoa and this offense averaging an NFL-best 9.5 yards a pass attempt goes at it. There’s no Jaylen Waddle (concussion) and that makes Denver’s job easier. Still, the Dolphins lead the NFL with 25 plays of 15 of more yards and six of 30 or more yards. It’s just two weeks. But this third week has a chance to be more of the same even without Waddle.
2.Adjust to Sean Payton and Russell Wilson as game moves on. This is what Las Vegas and Washington did after the Broncos came out hot in the first half. Wilson has an NFL-leading 149.3 rating in the first half of games where he’s completed 85.2 percent of his passes with four TDs and no interceptions. Second half is a different story. Wilson has a 69 rating, one TD and one interception. Payton and Fangio have met through the years and they’ve seen all the tricks. Fangio is all about limiting big plays. You want to run? This defense allows that some (though the Chargers overdid that idea). The Chargers and Patriots have completed 72 percent of passes against the Dolphins, but for just 6.1 yards an attempt (fifth best).
3. Offensive line keeps stepping forward. Terron Armstead is expected to make his first start at left tackle. Kendall Lamm did strong work the first two weeks in showing the depth of this line is fine. Armstead, when healthy, is one of the game’s best and so you’d expect this line to take an even better step forward than its 12th ranking from Pro Football Focus. The simple key: Keep Tagovailoa upright. He’s shown what he can do with strong protection and, even more, his health isn’t in play. Denver has four sacks – two by linebacker Jonathan Cooper – in the limited sample size. The Dolphins line has given up one sack s of far. The running backs haven’t even been involved much in the protection. Dare we think after two games the Dolphins have a good offensive line for the first time in years?
4. Matchup of the game: Tyreek Hill vs. Patrick Surtain II (and others). Hill is almost always the game’s matchup because he’s almost always the best player on the field and it’s interesting how defenses set up against him. With Waddle out, the Dolphins lose a home-run theat. That makes it easier for a Broncos defense that’s given up big plays. Surtain has been one of the game’s top cornerbacks since leaving Alabama and is rated the sixth-best cornerback through two games by PFF. We’ll have to see how Denver plays Hill. Bill Belichick took Hill out of the game (five catches, 40 yards) last week in New England with his coverage. Hill, though, has shown he can’t be held down long by any coverage.
5. Let the sub-tropical heat works its magic. The Dolphins playing 1 p.m. games in September or early October is the best home-field advantage in the NFL. Everyone talks about playing in cold weather in December and January. The heat is a better ally, especially in a stadium that is designed so the Dolphins stand in the shade and the opponent stands in the sun. Buffalo lost 13 players from the start to the end of the game last September. Sunday’s weather won’t be brutal – a high of 87 degrees with a 46 percent chance of rain. But it will be steamy at 85 percent humidity. This could feed into the Broncos’ second-half troubles. By the fourth quarter, they will be melting.
