Inter Miami playoffs tracker: Can Messi lead the MLS side to the postseason?

What once appeared to be a gargantuan task has now become easy to envision: Inter Miami is back in contention for the MLS Cup Playoffs.

At the time of Lionel Messi’s signing on July 6, Miami was at the bottom of the Eastern Conference with 17 points from 20 games. Only the Colorado Rapids had suffered a worse start to the 2023 season. Since then, Miami swiftly began its climb toward postseason qualification on the backs of Messi, Sergio Busquets, Jordi Alba and a trio of young South American players (plus an experienced manager in Tata Martino).

In the league’s current playoff format, seven teams in each conference (Eastern and Western) automatically qualify for the first round while the eighth and ninth-ranked sides from each conference take part in a play-in match to finalize the bracket.

This tracker will be updated after every Inter Miami game

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How close is Miami to making the playoffs?

With eight games remaining, Miami is still far from crashing the field. Although they’ve taken 10 points from Messi’s first four regular season matches, their efforts have only allowed them to overtake Toronto FC in the table. With at least one game in hand on most of the sides ahead of them, however, they’re poised to overtake more conference rivals should their impressive form persist.

With the season now into its final quarter, it will likely take 43 points to secure a spot in the play-in match. To avoid the one-off contest altogether, MLS teams will likely need to accrue 48 points. Needless to say, Miami’s misfortune under Phil Neville left the newly formed superteam with plenty of work to do.

How does the rest of the East look?

As of September 15, only FC Cincinnati has clinched a playoff spot in the Eastern Conference (and, it should be noted, across all of MLS). New England (despite all of its turmoil these days), Orlando, Philadelphia and Columbus would all require historic collapses to fall out of the top 9 places entirely. That leaves four spots likely up for grabs across the nine sides with a realistic chance of accruing 43 points with a strong homestretch showing.

Who does Miami play next?

Atlanta United. A win over Atlanta would hoist Miami ahead of both New York clubs, as the Red Bulls (on 29 points entering the weekend) have played one more game to date while New York City FC (30) has two more games in the books.

Saturday’s trip to Atlanta will be an emotional one for a couple of members of Inter Miami’s organization. Atlanta United won MLS Cup in 2018 with Martino as manager and Miami striker Josef Martínez leading a dynamic attack alongside Miguel Almirón. Both Martínez and Martino  will be paying their first visits to Mercedes-Benz Stadium with another MLS team.

Today, under head coach Gonzalo Pineda, Atlanta strives to dictate the tempo of each game. Only Columbus has a higher average rate of possession than Atlanta’s 56.2% this season. However, their field tilt of 52.2% (eighth in MLS) suggests a notable share of this time is spent outside of the final third. They aren’t the same attacking juggernaut they were under Martino, but they’re ranked sixth in MLS by creating 10.2 chances per game while their 1.8 goals per contest are third leaguewide.

Their leading man will be known by many Messi fans, as Thiago Almada was part of the Argentina squad that won the 2022 World Cup in Qatar. The 22-year-old is a bona fide MVP contender, with his 22 non-penalty goal contributions leading the league by three (ahead of Luciano Acosta’s 19). Signed from Velez Sarsfield for a league-record transfer fee north of $16 million, Almada is expected to be sought after by a number of clubs in Europe at the end of the season.

Other notable players on Atlanta’s roster include Greece international striker Giorgos Giakoumakis, United States international center back Miles Robinson and Peru international defender Luis Abram.

What comes after that?

It’s a quick turnaround, as Miami’s next game is on Wednesday. Not only will they return to the friendly confines of DRV PNK Stadium, but they’ll face the one team in the East which is below them in the table. Toronto FC had both hands on the trophy for MLS’s most tumultuous season before the meltdown in New England. At its heart was an at-times toxic relationship between star attackers Lorenzo Insigne and Federico Bernardeschi, as the Italian duo had a dynamic fraught with jealousy and incohesion.

Bob Bradley was dismissed as manager on June 26, with the team having drawn 10 of its first 17 games. They’ve performed even worse since the former United States head coach left, losing their next six games in a row before bucking the trend with a win over Philadelphia in their last match. They have little left to achieve this season, which could allow them to relish in playing the spoiler for the rest of the conference before John Herdman takes over on October 1.

The schedule below includes some games that won’t directly affect the standings, but could have an impact on player availability or squad rotation.

Other relevant games of interest

Elsewhere in the East, CF Montreal (8th place, 35 points) hosts the Chicago Fire (10th, 32) in one of a few contests between teams on the bubble of the playoff picture. Charlotte FC (11th, 31) will hope to make up ground at home against D.C. United (9th, 34), while New York City FC (12th, 30) hosts their local rival New York Red Bulls (13th, 29) as both teams desperately try to retain their status as perennial playoff qualifiers.

The New York sides kick off Saturday’s MLS slate at 3:30 p.m. Eastern, ahead of Atlanta’s hosting of Miami at 5:00 p.m. Eastern. The other two matches listed above kick off at 7:30 p.m. Eastern. All four contests can be streamed globally on Apple TV’s MLS Season Pass.

What about the West?

For those of you following the league outside of Messi’s exploits, here’s the lay of the land in the Western Conference.

 

(Photo: Harry How/Getty Images)