Dolphins at Patriots: Five things to watch for
MIAMI GARDENS — There’s always a concern for the Miami Dolphins when they play New England. That’s because Patriots coach Bill Belichick is considered a strategic genius.
The Dolphins (1-0) enter this 8 p.m. Sunday night game riding the momentum of a 36-34 victory over the Los Angeles Chargers while the Patriots (0-1) lost a hard-fought 25-20 game to the Philadelphia Eagles.
But Belichick, as the theory goes, always takes something away from an opponent’s offense. Will it be wide receiver Tyreek Hill? Probably not. Last year he had 12 receptions for 149 yards in two games against the Patriots.
Will it be wide receiver Jaylen Waddle?
Will it be the run game, making the Dolphins one dimensional?
However that goes, the Dolphins will still likely score at least three touchdowns and put constant pressure on the Patriots defense, offense and Belichick.
Here are some things to watch for in the game:
Pats defending Tua-to-Tyreek connection
Quarterback Tua Tagovailoa (28 of 45 for 466 yards, 3 touchdowns, 1 interception, 110.0 passer rating) was electric vs. the Chargers, and so was Hill (11 receptions, 215 yards, 2 touchdowns). Just as it happened last year, Tagovailoa is deadly accurate and Hill, with his speed, quickness and understanding of the offense, is nearly impossible to defend.
New England, which features rookie cornerback Christian Gonzalez (7 tackles, 1 pass defended, 1.0 sacks), the No. 17 pick of the draft, must control this duo from the back and front. Look for New England to find ways to unleash pass-rushing linebacker Matthew Judon, who has made the past four Pro Bowls and had 15.5 sacks last season. Of course, if the Patriots have any success there they still have to deal with Waddle (4 receptions, 78 yards).
The run games
Defensive lineman Christian Wilkins said the Dolphins allowing 234 rushing yards to the Chargers was unacceptable, and he’s right. Miami was No. 4 in run defense last season at 103.0 yards allowed per game. New England, led by running backs Rhamondre Stevenson (12 carries, 25 yards) and Ezekiel Elliott (7 carries, 29 yards), will try to run the ball to take pressure off quarterback Mac Jones. But the Patriots only amassed 76 yards on 22 carries against the Eagles.
The Dolphins only had 20 rushing attempts (they had 45 pass attempts) against the Chargers. Coach Mike McDaniel vowed to run more after finishing 31st in rushing attempts last season at 22.9 attempts per game. The danger is the offense, despite having the Tua-to-Tyreek connection, becomes one-sided and predictable, which happened last season. Running backs Raheem Mostert (10 carries for 37 yards, 1 touchdown) and Salvon Ahmed (3 carries, 11 yards) might need a boost from rookie De’Von Achane, who was inactive for the Chargers game.
Dolphins’ offensive line
Three players were being watched vs. the Chargers — left guard Isaiah Wynn, left tackle Kendall Lamm and right tackle Austin Jackson — and all three played well. Now they must do it again. Well, Lamm won’t have to do it if Pro Bowl left tackle Terron Armstead is now healthy, which is the hope. But perhaps Lamm’s performance means Armstead, who was being treated for leg, back and knee ailments, doesn’t have to rush back.
Keep an eye on center Connor Williams. There were three snap issues against the Chargers and it was an issue during training camp. The Patriots defense recorded three sacks (two by members of the front seven) against Philadelphia and kept the Eagles to a respectable 97 yards rushing on 25 carries, so their defensive front will pose a challenge to the Dolphins’ offensive line.
Jaelan Phillips and Bradley Chubb
Phillips (11 tackles, 0.5 sacks) and Chubb (4 tackles) applied fairly constant pressure on Chargers quarterback Justin Herbert. The fact that the sack totals weren’t higher shouldn’t be a discouraging thing.
The Patriots will start left tackle Trent Brown and right tackle Calvin Anderson. Neither is anything special so Phillips and Chubb should be able to gain more traction as pass rushers, disrupting Jones (35 of 54 for 316 yards, 3 touchdowns, 1 interception, 91.3 passer rating) and the passing game.
Key stats, positive signs
The Dolphins did well in a number of key areas vs. the Chargers including penalties (6 for 38 yards), getting the offensive plays to the huddle efficiently (no delay of game penalties) and red-zone offense (3 of 5, 60%). The Dolphins were tied for fourth last season in penalties.
Turnover margin was one area the Dolphins didn’t fare well. They lost that battle to the Chargers, 0-2.
Still, if Miami repeats their performance in these key areas, and improves in turnover margin, a victory over the Patriots is certainly likely.
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