Miami (OH) vs Miami Odds, Picks, Predictions

Miami (OH) vs Miami Odds

In what is unofficially dubbed the “Confusion Bowl,” the Miami University RedHawks will go on the road to face the Miami Hurricanes.

These two teams have faced off three times before, with the Hurricanes winning all three. The last meeting came in 1987, so many of us haven’t witnessed these two face off in our lifetimes.

These two teams are largely the same as last year, returning almost everyone from both sides of the ball. However, a key returnee will influence the total of this game, in my opinion.

Let’s dive into the Miami (OH) vs. Miami odds and find a pick in the college football betting preview for Friday, Sept. 1.

Chuck Martin is heading into his 10th season as the coach of the RedHawks, where he’s established them as a consistent mid-level MAC program.

There’s simply no other way to put it, but the offense was bad last season. Miami (OH) ranked 128th in SP+ offense, 121st in Success Rate, 130th in Havoc Rate and 130th in Passing Success Rate. However, the RedHawks did spend most of the season without star quarterback Brett Gabbert.

Gabbert was injured in Week 1 and played just four games all season. When he was healthy in 2021, the RedHawks ranked a much more respectable 64th in SP+ offense.

This season, Martin’s offense will return seven starters. Their biggest loss will be their top receiver and two starting offensive linemen, but they return much of their overall production.

As a team, Miami (OH) ranks 25th in net returning production this season. This defense returns nine starters, including an extraordinary 17 of its top 20 tacklers from a season ago.

This defense already ranked 37th in SP+ and 52nd in Defensive Success Rate last year. With this much experience, I would project that this defense could potentially end the season in the top 30.

That unit struggled against the pass, though. The RedHawks’ defense ranked just 88th in Passing Success Rate and 107th in passing PPA allowed in 2022.

If the Hurricanes want to be able to move the ball against this defense, they’ll have to do it through the air.

Much was expected from the 2022 Hurricanes, but they came up well short. Tyler Van Dyke was once considered to be a potential first-round pick in the NFL Draft but now returns to Coral Gables to rebuild his reputation.

The Hurricanes finished the season ranked 77th in SP+ offense. They were 36th in Offensive Success Rate and 15th in Rushing Success Rate but lacked explosiveness overall. Miami finished the season just 128th in FBS in Offensive Explosiveness.

This year, the Canes bring back nine starters on this side of the ball — tight end Will Mallory is the only key departure. New offensive coordinator Shannon Dawson comes over from Houston in hopes of improving this unit.

The disappointment of 2022 for Mario Cristobal’s team carried over to the defense as well. They ranked 74th in SP+ on defense and 60th in Defensive Success Rate. While the offense struggled to generate explosive pass plays, the defense struggled to prevent them.

The Hurricanes’ defense ranked 121st in Passing Explosiveness and allowed more 50-yard pass plays than any other team in the nation last year.

Improvement should be expected, as the Hurricanes will return almost everyone on this side of the ball. Miami will get back 10 starters on defense, and with its level of talent, the unit should be much improved.

While I believe that both defenses are strong, that’s already priced in by the market’s low total of 45.5. What I don’t believe to be priced in is the offensive improvement that we should expect out of the RedHawks with Gabbert back under center.

With their returning production on offense and a healthy Gabbert, I think that they’ll be able to score at least a modest amount of points on this mediocre — albeit experienced — Hurricanes defense.

Currently, the RedHawks’ team total is 13.5. I like them to go over this mark, as they should be able to muster two touchdowns or more.

Pick: Miami (OH) Team Total Over 13.5

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