Lionel Messi, Inter Miami now among title favorites

Messi Mania. Messi Magic. Call it whatever you want to.

It continued Wednesday night, when the Argentine delivered a perfect ball into the box to set up Inter Miami’s equalizing goal at the death vs. FC Cincinnati in the U.S. Open Cup semifinals. Inter Miami went on to win in penalties. Just days after winning the club’s first piece of hardware in the Leagues Cup, the Herons advanced to another trophy final.

Inter Miami is a perfect 8-for-8 with Messi in uniform. It ran the table in the Leagues Cup, including a dominant 4-1 win over the Union in Chester. Messi has 10 goals and three assists in those eight games.

The Argentine, who is arguably the greatest soccer player in history, has completely transformed Inter Miami and also the economy around MLS.

Inter Miami was at the bottom of the MLS table before he arrived. The Herons are still there now, having not played an MLS league game since Messi joined. That changes Saturday in New York.

Can Miami make a run from worst to first? Here’s what the odds say.

MLS Cup odds: Inter Miami is among the favorites

Miami has the fewest points among all 29 MLS teams as its MLS schedule resumes this weekend. That, obviously, puts the Herons in last place in the Eastern Conference. They are 5-14-3 and 14 points out of a playoff spot with 12 games remaining.

But Messi, Sergio Busquets, and Jordi Alba have completely changed the math for Miami. So much so that oddsmakers have the Herons near the top of the odds board to win MLS Cup.

Here are the eight teams with shorter than 20/1 odds to win the MLS Cup at BetMGM as of Thursday morning:

Obviously, there’s a bit of a Messi Tax situation involved here. Bettors are going to be betting on Messi and his team to do well. But it’s hard to argue with Messi, Busquets, and Alba completely changing Miami’s fortunes. After all, they haven’t lost with the trio in uniform.

To put some of this in perspective, statistical analysis site FiveThirtyEight last updated its MLS predictions forecast on June 13, a few weeks before Messi came to America. Miami had the worst goal differential in the league and just 15 points. The Herons were projected to finish the season with 32 points (the current point total for Chicago, the last playoff team in the Eastern Conference) and the FiveThirtyEight model gave Miami a 4% chance to make the playoffs and a 48% chance to finish at the bottom of the conference.

Miami’s 6/1 odds at BetMGM to win MLS Cup translates to an implied probability of 14.3% to win the title.

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Top goal scorer: Messi favored to go on a big run

Want some more Messi Math?

Despite having zero MLS goals (Miami’s eight games with Messi have been in other competitions), Messi was the favorite Thursday morning at BetMGM to finish the regular season with the most goals despite the leader, Hany Mukhtar, having a 13-goal head start.

Six players had shorter than 10/1 odds as of Thursday morning to be the league’s top goal scorer:

Oddsmakers expect Messi to make up a 13-goal deficit in 12 games.

With the run he’s currently on, it’s hard to put it past him.