How Nashville SC will try to stop Messi’s Inter Miami in the Leagues Cup final

It’s deep into second-half stoppage time, and Fafa Picault has just put the game on ice for Nashville SC. The winger had plenty to do to get his goal, too, busting his lungs down the flank and still needing to muscle a Monterrey defender off his shoulder before placing a shot in the roof above the opposing goalkeeper. 

“This has been an incredible performance,” match analyst Danny Higginbotham said as the Apple TV broadcast cycled through its replay angles. “This is Nashville at their best, from start to finish. Organization, finishing, putting the ball into the back of the net, everybody helping each other. And it’s a result that isn’t a fluke. It’s thoroughly deserved.”

As the former Premier League defender wrapped up his remarks, he was forced to increase his volume. Emerging underneath his remarks were those of the 30,105 fans in attendance at Geodis Park, giving their team the ultimate compliment. 

“We want Messi. (clap, clap, clap-clap-clap) We want Messi.”

Nashville came into the league at the same time as Inter Miami in 2020, making them similar in at least one way: Both sides had to navigate their already-difficult first days in MLS while simultaneously dealing with everything that came with COVID-19. 

They have met once before in a knockout competition, with Nashville dominating Miami in the play-in round for the 2020 MLS Cup playoffs. Nashville’s run that year ended in the conference semifinal. Since then, they’ve perennially been a factor in the postseason and given the U.S. Open Cup their best. 

Saturday will be Nashville’s first appearance in a final (as it will be for Miami) — and they’ll be doing so against the greatest player the game has ever seen. 

“It was a special night for a lot of reasons,” left back Daniel Lovitz said of the win over Monterrey. “Most importantly, that we progressed. On a personal level, it’s a pretty spectacular opportunity to go up against the greatest player who ever did it. He’s somebody who I consider to be an incredible influence on me and my love for the game.”

Playing collegiately at Elon University, Lovitz was a multi-faceted wide midfielder. He scored nine goals and added 16 assists across 80 appearances, winning Southern Conference Player of the Year in 2013. Upon arriving in MLS (first with Toronto FC in 2014), however, he was gradually converted to left back as the game moved from preferring strong-footed wingers to inverted ones cutting onto their stronger foot. 

It didn’t necessarily harm Lovitz’s career to drop further back; he’s a 13-times capped United States international and a regular on one of MLS’s best teams. As a result, though, he’s watched hours of tape on Messi from the vantage point of someone hoping to emulate him. Now, he’ll have the eyes of the world on him as he tries to contain the Argentine legend.

“For me and for us, I think we look to be able to stay flexible and be positive in how we adapt,” Lovitz said. “When it comes to an individual like Messi, it’s obviously a daunting task to keep him from having a major impact. Naturally, his position is consistently on the right side and I think everyone’s seen the ridiculous runs he goes on and how effective he can be when he’s on the ball .. Messi has made much better defenders than myself look stupid trying to stop him, so it’s going to be a group effort.”

That group will face a Miami team that has kept at times hypnotic control of the possession battle. No team that advanced to at least the Leagues Cup round of 32 has sustained a higher average rate of possession than Miami’s 59.8%. It’s a serious asset for Miami manager Tata Martino, forcing opponents to make decisions and forgo structural stability in the name of getting the ball back. Those ill-advised breaks from the norm have created space for Messi to do his thing. 

However, Nashville will not mind ceding the majority of time on the ball. Their 44.7% possession rate is right in line with a 44.3% from Dallas, the team that has given Messi his greatest challenge to date in the Leagues Cup. While Dallas’ field tilt (a possession metric only counting touches and passes in each attacking third) of 43.1% is in-line with their share of touches, Nashville’s dips to 37.6% — the third-lowest of any team in the field. 

However, despite that low rate of attacking touches, Nashville has not wasted many. Only Minnesota United has a higher rate of converting direct attacks into goals than Nashville’s 7.1% across the regular season and Leagues Cup. Gary Smith’s side has the fifth-most fast break shots per 90 (0.57) of any MLS team despite ranking just 20th in overall breaks per 90 (2.33). 

Facing an opponent that forces Nashville to capitalize in transition plays directly into their strengths. For all the good that Messi, Jordi Alba and Sergio Busquets have provided going forward, Miami’s defense is still mostly the same as the one which helped the side sit last in the MLS table entering the tournament. The trio’s near-undroppable status leaves at least two — depending how you rate Alba’s transition defending at age 34 — of Miami’s 10 field players with very little to offer in defense following a turnover. 

This could give Nashville ample real estate and chances to book it the other way. And if the space beyond Alba is left unassigned when the ball changes feet, it’s another factor that greatly enhances Nashville’s chances of getting a result.

Two of every five touches Nashville makes in the attacking half come in the right third — the exact space which would be open when Alba joins in Miami’s attack. It’s an area that reigning MVP and stepover savant Hany Mukhtar can easily get to as he operates from his central attacking midfield role, and one which Picault worked for that clincher against Monterrey. Alex Muyl, the projected starter at right wing, has one goal from four shots in 357 Leagues Cup minutes.

Those moments will be worth their weight in electric gold. 

“Attacking transitions are something that’s in our DNA,” Lovitz said. “Maybe it’s situational with how teams are approaching this tournament, being a bit more attacking to try and win the game before penalties. There’s a possibility that late in the games when things are more open, but from an on-field perspective, it feels much the same. We just want to hit a little bit more and things are starting to come off and make us more dangerous. A lot of our counter-attacks have had some teeth.”

Nashville has also added a new element as the Leagues Cup has progressed, going from slightly underperforming their expected goals (-0.13) to outperforming at a 0.9 G-xG clip per game. They’re averaging two more shots while being 11% more accurate with those attempts, while they’re converting their fast breaks into goals twice as often. 

The higher conversion rate has something to do with the roster’s newest member. Sam Surridge joined the team just ahead of the tournament, arriving from Nottingham Forest for a fee in the region of £5 million ($6.3 million). The 24-year-old’s career has been one of fits and starts. He never outgrew squad status with his boyhood club Bournemouth even after its relegation from the Premier League in 2020. A frustrating half-year at Stoke City led to him joining Forest in January 2022, providing seven goals that helped the club secure promotion to the Premier League for the first time since 1999. 

Surridge went back to being a bit-part player last season, scoring once from 20 appearances which largely came from the bench. Still, his one full season as a regular starter, which spanned his time with Stoke and Forest alike, showed that he won’t be wasteful when given chances to score.

Surridge has shown as much with his new side, scoring three goals and providing an assist despite logging just 117 minutes. His most recent goal shows exactly why Nashville is a good fit for his reading of the game and unusually accurate finishing.

Nashville has always been, at minimum, a good team since debuting in 2020. What most often held them back from joining MLS’s elite has been an inability to find a striker whose goalscoring chops can take pressure off of Mukhtar in the final third. If Surridge can provide this kind of scoring threat without relying on being a volume shooter, it’ll be a huge boost for a team that is increasingly dangerous in transition.

Nashville’s Leagues Cup has already been a big success – the team has secured a spot in the 2024 CONCACAF Champions Cup as a top-two finisher in this competition, easing the pressure on the rest of the MLS campaign. Assuming the team doesn’t have a drop-off once the regular season re-starts, it could be an MLS Cup contender.

“If our biggest problem moving forward with MLS is how we manage our performance after winning the Leagues Cup, I think that’s a fantastic problem to have,” Lovitz said. “At the end of the day, we have to be pragmatic and realistic with what this competition represents. Although it’s a final, it’s just another game in the middle of the season that we’re still looking to accomplish a lot at the end of the year. As long as we can get through this game and understand we’re taking strides in a positive direction, we know that it’ll put us in a great position to not only win this game, but keep us in a good mindset moving forward.”

(Photo: Matthew Maxey/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)