Philadelphia Phillies at Miami Marlins odds, picks and predictions

The Philadelphia Phillies (58-50) and Miami Marlins (58-51) meet Thursday to cap off a 4-game series at loanDepot park. First pitch will be at 12:10 p.m. ET (MLB Network). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Phillies vs. Marlins odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: Marlins lead 5-4

Philadelphia lost 9-8 in 12 innings Wednesday, blowing a 5-0 lead and costing itself a chance at a sweep after winning the first two games of this series.

Miami clubbed 3 home runs for the 1st time since July 9 in Wednesday’s victory. The Fish have won 2 consecutive games just once since July 9.

Phillies at Marlins projected starters

RHP Michael Lorenzen vs. RHP Johnny Cueto

Lorenzen (5-7, 3.58 ERA) is tabbed for his 19th start. He has logged a 1.10 WHIP, 2.3 BB/9 and 7.1 K/9 through 105 2/3 IP with Detroit Tigers.

• Acquired from Tigers Tuesday
• Last start: Loss, 5 IP, 5 H, 3 ER, 1 BB, 7 K in 6-0 home loss vs. Los Angeles Angels Thursday
• 2023 road stats: 2-3, 3.17 ERA in 48 1/3 IP across 8 starts
• Career vs. Marlins: 2-2, 2.72 ERA in 39 2/3 IP across 4 starts and 11 relief appearances
• Thursday’s start will mark Lorenzen’s eighth since June 20; 6 of those have come against teams currently ranked in MLB’s bottom-12 on the scoring rolls

Cueto (0-2, 5.06 ERA) is tabbed for his 4th start and 5th appearance. He has a 0.88 WHIP, 2.3 BB/9 and 7.9 K/9 through 16 IP.

• Last start: Loss, 6 IP, 4 H, 4 ER, 1 BB, 5 K in 5-0 loss to Detroit Tigers Saturday
• Is 5-8 with a 3.41 ERA and 1.17 WHIP over 129 1/3 road innings since 2021
• Last 5 starts vs. Phillies: 1-1, 4.83 ERA in 31 2/3 IP (2015-21)
• Activated from the 60-day injured list (biceps) on July 10
• Owns a 3.46 ERA across 360 career games

Phillies at Marlins odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 6:53 a.m. ET.

• Moneyline: Phillies -125 (bet $125 to win $100) | Marlins +105 (bet $100 to win $105)
• Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Phillies -1.5 (+140) | Marlins +1.5 (-165)
• Over/Under (O/U): 8.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)

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Phillies at Marlins picks and predictions

Prediction

Phillies 5, Marlins 4

Moneyline

The Marlins are a team to fade right now, but Lorenzen and a tired Philly bullpen don’t offer enough on the other side to make a successful, leveraged confirmation of that counter-Miami lean.

AVOID.

Run line/Against the spread

Again, no value lean on either side. PASS.

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Over/Under

Games 1 and 2 were clear Unders. Game 3 saw the offenses battle back (although the pitching match-up had that game tabbed with some profitability on the Under). Look for game 4 to level this set with another high-scoring contest.

Figure Lorenzen and Cueto as iffy propositions to deliver a low run total to the latter innings of Thursday’s matinee. Lorenzen has been the beneficiary of some shoreless performances against lesser foes of late. For the season, he has benefited from a .264 batting average on balls in play.

Cueto is a question mark. Both bullpens are gassed.

TAKE THE OVER 8.5 (-110).

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