Should Duncan McGuire’s success in Orlando City change MLS?

Duncan McGuire is the new star of Orlando City.

Nobody saw it coming, especially not the highest-paid player who rides the bench in his place.

The rookie forward leads the team with 8 goals, tying for 12th in the league entering tonight’s Leagues Cup match with Inter Miami.

“It is definitely a bit crazy,” McGuire told the Orlando Sentinel. “It’s not what I thought was going to happen. To be a rookie playing well with this group of guys is a lot more than what I thought I was going to get, but hopefully I can keep it going.”

McGuire, who makes the team’s fifth-lowest guaranteed salary of $77,360, started the last six regular season games over Designated Player Ercan Kara.

Kara, the Austrian forward who led the Lions in goals last season (11), has a team-high salary of $2,053,601 guaranteed, 26.5 times larger than McGuire’s pay.

But not even Kara’s pricetag can incentivize Orlando City (10-6-7, 37 points) to keep him on the field. He was dethroned for subpar goal-production (5) after 11 starts.

McGuire got the promotion after consistently finding the net off the bench. He scored three goals in stoppage time.

“I’ve definitely found my stride,” said McGuire. “I’ve found more ways to score, and I’m getting more comfortable with my teammates. I’m becoming more and more dangerous every game.”

Right behind McGuire is Designated Player Facundo Torres with 7 goals.

Torres took 1,592 minutes to rack them up. McGuire only needed 816.

Torres’s guaranteed salary of $993,200 makes McGuire a steal.

Yet prior to his whirlwind success, the Creighton men’s soccer alum was the Lions’ wild card.

Unlike professional football, basketball, baseball, and even women’s soccer teams in America, MLS clubs no longer regard college as a pipeline to star players.

Orlando City prefers players from their own youth academy or professional clubs overseas, a league-wide trend.

McGuire was the No. 6 overall pick in the 2023 MLS SuperDraft, becoming one of only six former college players on Orlando City’s roster and one of four from the SuperDraft.

“It is weird being one of the only guys to have gone the college route, but there is a tight bond with the other college guys on the team,” said McGuire. “We have extra love for each other.”

Although McGuire was the 2022 MAC Hermann Trophy winner, he had a lot to prove on the professional level, reflected by Orlando City’s collegiate demographic, his single-year contract and salary.

McGuire’s base salary of $67,360 is the lowest on the team and the league’s reserve minimum.

Before McGuire’s arrival, Kyle Smith (Transylvania) was the only former college player on the Lions’ current roster to appear in more than 10% of matches.

There is no longer a question about McGuire’s capabilities. The team’s skyrocket to fifth place in the East is a direct result of the young player’s offensive firepower.

The better question is this: How much will McGuire’s professional success impact the value of men’s college soccer?

Does his stardom prove that the MLS should not discredit the college game, or is McGuire just an outlier?

College soccer on decline

The SuperDraft is an annual college draft in January, used by MLS teams to select players with no prior affiliation to the league. Most are graduating seniors who have exhausted their eligibility.

It is a process quickly losing its credibility.

The SuperDraft, prior to 2021, consisted of four rounds in which each club made a selection. MLS, however, reduced the draft to three rounds after many clubs took the option to “pass” on their selections.

The draft’s value began to wane by 2010 when MLS adopted youth academies, European-style soccer development programs that are owned and operated by the league’s teams.

Every MLS franchise has had its own youth academy since 2017, investing in local players and teaching them their club’s style of play. Orlando City’s opened in 2012, with intense, year-round training.

College soccer is now the tertiary method for signing MLS players, with the youth academies and the acquisition of players overseas as the primary avenues.

An average of 76 players per year were selected in the SuperDraft between 2020-22. Only an average of 26 players, however, signed an MLS contract, just more than 30% of draftees and less than one per team.

The Philadelphia Union, who won the 2020 Supporters’ Shield for having the best record in the league (14-4-5, 47 points), did not make a single selection in the 2021 SuperDraft, stating they would rather sign a player directly from their own youth academy.

The majority of the SuperDraft signees make the league’s reserve minimum, $67,360, including 2023 No. 1 pick Hamady Diop (Clemson) at Charlotte FC.

Youth academies on rise

As college soccer’s value declines, there is a significant increase in the number of MLS Homegrowns, players from development academies who sign directly to their first-team roster, bypassing the college game.

Orlando City has seven Homegrown players on its active roster: Alexander Freeman, Michael Halliday, Favian Loyola, Luca Petrasso, Wilfredo Rivera, Thomas Williams and Mason Stajduhar, compared to four in 2019.

“Michael is an example of the vision we have for the future of the Orlando City development pyramid, making the journey from the academy to our MLS side,” said Luiz Muzzi, Orlando City EVP of soccer operations, via announcement of Halliday’s signing. “After starting out in our academy and signing with Orlando City B, Michael has been able to train with our First Team, including during our time in Mexico this preseason.

“Wilfredo is another great example of the talent coming out of our academy. We’re excited for Wilfredo to join the First Team. He exemplifies the developmental vision that we have for the youth of this Club.”

All except Freeman ($67,360 guaranteed) and Loyola ($69,495 guaranteed) earn a higher salary than McGuire.

In 2018, there were 30 Homegrown contracts league-wide. There are now 189 across 29 active rosters, more than six times as many in the span of five years.

Toronto FC has the most Homegrown players with 11. CF Montreal and Colorado Rapids each have 10, with no limit to Homegrown contracts.

MLS has purposely instilled loose and generous terms for Homegrown players to promote the growth of youth academies and further assimilate to a European system.

To be considered Homegrown, a player must live in the club’s region, but that can be up to a 125-mile radius depending on the club.

The player needs just one year of experience at the club’s development academy before age 15, even if the majority of their soccer education comes from outside the MLS system.

Homegrown players do not count against the team’s $5.2 million salary budget if they are registered on a supplemental roster spot, incentivizing clubs to stack their roster with them and capitalize on the greater proportion of their salary budget to spend on other players.

MLS also provides a subsidy from a league-wide allocation pool to clubs that sign Homegrowns to their first MLS contract, allowing pro teams to spend extra money on other areas.

“The growth of our development pathway is imperative to the long-term success of our Club,” said Muzzi, via statement.

The 29th and 30th spots on the MLS roster are reserved exclusively for Homegrown players, so teams must invest in their youth programs to maximize roster size.

Academy players require no transfer fees to sign to their first team, making them the cheapest way to fill a roster. Meanwhile, the club retains the rights to their Homegrown players, acquiring payments if the players go to another club.

Late bloomer

McGuire’s success runs counter to the direction the MLS is moving, shocking the league and the rookie himself.

He is the first and only SuperDraft selection to score 3 goals in his first six games of a debut season.

However, a closer look at McGuire’s past reveals why college soccer can be a perfect avenue to MLS.

McGuire grew up in Omaha, Neb., three hours away from the closest youth academy, Sporting Kansas City. This geographic barrier prevented his affiliation with MLS at an early age.

“I played club soccer in Omaha,” he said. “No academies. I just played for local clubs.”

He committed to Creighton University, with college soccer as his only opportunity to continue playing.

Buried on the depth chart, the freshman made zero appearances in 2019.

“He came in with a lot of energy, a lot of vigor, a lot of excitement,” said Creighton coach Johnny Torres. “He quickly got to see that the level of play was a little higher than what he was accustomed to at the club level and even the high school level. There were some growing pains and some adapting that needed to happen.”

Added McGuire: “I was a redshirt. I didn’t expect to play, and I didn’t. I got to learn the game and develop my body because I was a lot smaller back then.”

McGuire moved slightly up the ranks in 2020, appearing in all 12 matches for the Bluejays, yet earning only four starts. He managed 3 goals, which was fourth-best on the team.

His 2021 season played out in similar fashion. McGuire appeared in all 19 matches, yet started five. He recorded 1 goal against Villanova.

He unexpectedly burst onto the scene in his fourth year.

The NCAA Division I goal-leader netted 23 in 24 games, setting Creighton’s single-season record.

“I anticipated success, yes, but did I anticipate success this quickly and as high as he has risen in the past year and a half? Absolutely not,” said Torres, who coached McGuire all four years. “So it was a great surprise. We absolutely welcomed it.”

He was a two-time National Player of the Week and Big East Offensive Player of the Year.

“Junior year, I couldn’t quite find my footing for scoring goals,” said McGuire. “I was missing chances and I wasn’t very confident. My final season, I found my confidence in the first game and never looked back. Everything kind of sped up, and I found my form. When my coach told me I would probably go top 10 [in the MLS SuperDraft], I thought he was full of it.”

He led the Bluejays to the NCAA semifinals where they fell to eventual champion Syracuse, 3-2.

“Twelve months ago I was thinking about what job I might have after graduating or being drafted into the USL,” McGuire told Creighton University Athletics. “Looking back on it, it’s hard to believe how that last year transpired.”

McGuire’s experience reveals realities that MLS glosses over:

• MLS youth academies are out of reach for many rural and Midwestern players, leaving them no choice but to compete at the college level.
• Some players just take longer to develop physically and skillwise into a pro athlete. Not all are suited for the highest level at 14 years old.

“I only played in a youth academy for three months when I was in seventh or eighth grade, but it just didn’t work out,” said McGuire. “I would drive to Sporting Kansas City every Wednesday after school, practice and drive home. I was training with a team two years older. I was way smaller than all of them, and I wasn’t playing well. I think my dad was being nice when he said it was too far of a drive for me to play there anymore. I think I might have just been cut [from the team].”

• Some players take time to develop mentally, especially McGuire who needed three years of college to gain confidence.

“Duncan has always been a very good finisher around the 18-yard box,” said Torres. “It was just about the attitude and approach that he was taking toward goal. He was putting a lot of pressure on himself to finish. In his last season, he finally understood that he might not be able to finish every opportunity, but as long as he continues to have opportunities, he can continue to refine his focus in and around the goal.”

McGuire’s MLS success is right on time for his development, even if it doesn’t fit league expectations.

While MLS focuses on youth and Homegrown players, McGuire proves that college can produce gems, too.

“Our college game has to be taken seriously, both in our communities and by Major League Soccer,” added Torres, who enters his 17th season with the Bluejays. “We shouldn’t be overlooking this as a roadmap for aspiring professionals who want to be a part of the MLS.”

Some of those gems simply need more time before they can shine.

“There is a lot of talent still in college soccer that any MLS team would be lucky to have,” McGuire said. “I’d definitely say that I am glad that was the route written for me. I enjoyed every second of it.”