Damian Lillard or bust is the only path for the Heat. It’s also the correct one
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The easiest way to look like a winner in NBA free agency is to get your work done early. Teams like the Los Angeles Lakers, Phoenix Suns and Indiana Pacers will each be lauded over the weekend for moves they’ve made to improve their rosters in the first 24 hours of free agency.
Compared to everything those teams did, Day 1 was rough for the Miami Heat.
They lost starting point guard Gabe Vincent after he agreed to a three-year, $33 million deal with the Los Angeles Lakers, as first reported by The Athletic. Max Strus is also departing, to the Cavaliers in a sign-and-trade deal that will pay him four years and about $63 million, according to ESPN.
The two members of Miami’s starting backcourt in 22 of its 23 playoff games this year appear to be headed to new teams. After witnessing their maturation from undrafted free agents to key contributors, the Heat had to have taken it as a tough blow to see Vincent and Strus leave.
It may not be fun, but Damian Lillard has finally requested a trade from the Portland Trail Blazers league sources told The Athletic on Saturday with the Eastern Conference champion Miami Heat as the specific destination.
The Heat are on the path to being the biggest winners of the offseason. Lillard appears to prefer a move to Miami, and his arrival would likely make the Heat the favorites to repeat as Eastern Conference champions. Lillard, Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo could arguably be the best Big 3 in the NBA, and all of their skills complement each other. Lillard would also provide a massive boost to a Heat offense that hit major roadblocks at certain points last season. The Heat should do whatever it takes to pull this one off, even if it includes shipping off Tyler Herro and future first-round picks in 2028 and 2030. Lillard’s arrival would extend a title window in Miami.
While Miami is his preferred destination, Lillard will have a few legitimate title contenders lining up to pursue him. But none of the potential suitors check as many of the boxes that will tempt Lillard more than Miami: The storied winning tradition; the stability with the coaching staff and front office; the potential partnership with Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo. The absence of a state income tax and all the other amenities that come with living in South Beach don’t hurt, either. There’s no doubt Lillard would be a natural fit with “Heat Culture.”
Lillard’s back-and-forth decision-making process regarding his future in Portland has been an ongoing source of discussion the past few offseasons, with the likelihood of his potential departure now heating up on the second day of free agency after the Blazers missed the playoffs for a second straight season. Before Saturday, the most recent update had been a meeting on Monday between Lillard, his agent, Aaron Goodwin, and Blazers general manager Joe Cronin to discuss the direction of the franchise. After the meeting, Cronin released this statement:
“I met with Dame and Aaron Goodwin this afternoon. We had a great dialogue. We remain committed to building a winner around Dame.”
Cronin hasn’t wavered on his desire to keep the soon-to-be 33-year-old Lillard in Portland and try to improve on last season’s ugly 33-49 record. Agreeing to a five-year, $160 million contract with veteran forward Jerami Grant on Friday, as reported by The Athletic’s Shams Charania, was yet another sign the Blazers may still see themselves as a threat in the West.
For Lillard, now is the time to make his move. Even with Grant, the Blazers probably won’t have enough to compete with the upper-echelon teams in the West, and they don’t have any clear paths to adding another major contributor. Portland also has a ready-made replacement for Lillard with 2023 No. 3 pick Scoot Henderson.
GO DEEPER
When these Finals end, Pat Riley needs to go get Damian Lillard
Several reports, including that of The Athletic’s Sam Amick, have Miami as Lillard’s top choice if he decides to make a move. Lillard even admitted it himself while recording a podcast with Showtime a few weeks ago, drawing a distinction between the Heat and other options, such as Boston, New York or Brooklyn.
“Miami is the obvious one,” Lillard said. “And Bam is my dawg, for real.”
Lillard’s feelings on staying in Portland were once hard to pin down. For years, he’s professed a desire to stay in a show of loyalty to the only franchise he’s played for as a pro. But now that he’s requested a trade, Miami’s wait was short.
Pulling off a Lillard trade would be the biggest move any team could make this offseason. Adding a player of that caliber to a core with Butler and Adebayo would make the Heat favorites to win an Eastern Conference that’s in flux as of now. Milwaukee is still working to bring back starting center Brook Lopez on a new deal. Boston will need time to adjust after the Marcus Smart-for-Kristaps Porziņģis swap. As usual, Philadelphia is knee-deep in a massive drama involving one of its best players. For all the reasons above, a potential Lillard move to Miami is a natural fit for both sides.
But until Lillard agrees, the Heat will be stuck in limbo for the foreseeable future. And no matter how difficult it may be, waiting for Lillard isn’t just the best option for Miami. It’s the only option.
Despite the Vincent and Strus losses, the Heat made a few moves on the margins with smaller deals. They agreed to bring back Josh Richardson, who grew from second-round pick to key contributor in his first Heat stint from 2015 to 2019, on a minimum contract, according to Charania. They reportedly agreed to re-sign Kevin Love on a two-year deal starting at the $3.7 million Non-Bird exception; the second year is a player option. They also freed up a little over $9 million by agreeing to trade Victor Oladipo into the Oklahoma City Thunder’s cap space, as first reported by The Athletic.
After factoring in these moves, Miami will have 11 players under contract, including 2023 first-round pick Jaime Jaquez Jr., and are already a projected $8 million over the luxury tax line. This reality made re-signing Strus and/or Vincent to long-term deals unlikely.
It also leaves the Heat with minimal options to improve a roster that already had major flaws before Vincent and Strus departed. A Lillard trade (or any other for a third star) would probably have to consist of two of Kyle Lowry, Tyler Herro and Duncan Robinson, as well as first-round picks in 2028 and 2030. (They cannot trade any pick before 2026 unless they and the Thunder agree to remove protections on the 2025 first-round pick already owed to Oklahoma City). Miami could also throw Jaquez and 2022 first-round pick Nikola Jović into any deal as a sweetener.
While there are some nice pieces on this roster, the team had serious offensive issues for most of the year. The Heat ended the 2022-23 regular season ranked 25th in points scored per 100 possession, 17th in 3-pointers made and 27th in 3-point percentage. They were held under 100 points in six of their final nine postseason games, including all four losses against the Nuggets in the NBA Finals.
Lillard’s presence would immediately change that dynamic.
He’s not only one of the most prolific 3-point threats in the NBA – he’s made at least 200 threes in seven of the last eight seasons – but also is coming off the most productive offensive season of his career. In 2022-23, Lillard finished with career-highs in points per game (32.2), field goal percentage (46.3), 3-pointers made (4.2) and attempted (11.3) per game, and free throw attempted per game (9.6). He may not have produced enough wins in Portland the last few seasons, but he’s a top-5 offense unto himself as soon as he walks into the building.
In particular, he would introduce a defined offensive identity to a Heat squad that has somewhat adapted its scheme to whoever was in the lineup the last few seasons. Ball screens with Lillard have produced some of the most efficient offense the league has seen in the last decade. According to Synergy Sports, here’s where Lillard ranked in points per possession as the pick-and-roll ballhandler over the last seven regular seasons, among players with at least 400 pick-and-roll possessions:
- 2022-23: 1st out of 36 players
- 2021-22: Did not qualify due to injury
- 2020-21: 2nd out of 28 players
- 2019-20: 1st out of 32 players
- 2018-19: 1st out of 33 players
- 2017-18: 4th out of 26 players
- 2016-17: 5th out of 34 players
Lillard is so good with the ball in his hands that he’s capable of lifting up just about any supporting cast that’s put around him.
But he’s never had a wingman as capable as Butler, and he’s never had a big man as dynamic as Adebayo setting screens for him. The wide-open looks Adebayo could get from playing alongside Lillard would be unfair. The Heat center averaged a career-high 20.4 points this past season playing next to point guards who would never demand the amount of attention Lillard does every time he touches the ball.
As good as Butler and Adebayo were during their historic run to the Finals this past season, they needed help to get this group over the hump. Heat team president Pat Riley admitted as much at his end-of-season presser a few weeks ago while also acknowledging how difficult that pursuit will be.
“I would like to try to get him more support … but right now, it’s on his shoulders,” Riley said of Butler. “And that happens with a lot of great players. I would like to pick the perfect complement to him, but it’s not that easy.”
If the Heat miss out on Lillard, they may throw their hat in the ring on James Harden as he pushes his way out of Philadelphia, but there may not be anyone in the league who’s less of a fit with “Heat Culture” than Harden. DeMar DeRozan is another veteran scorer who could fit nicely next to Butler, but Chicago doesn’t seem to have much of an appetite to make that kind of move.
But one thing’s for sure: the opportunity to land someone as good as Lillard may not only be worth the wait, but it also may be the only option.
This has suddenly turned into a major crossroads for Miami: Land Lillard and become one of the title favorites or lose out on him and potentially watch him guide Philadelphia or Brooklyn past you.
(Top photo: Rich Storry / USA Today)
