Where Will Damian Lillard End Up?

Maybe it was mere coincidence that when Damian Lillard went live on Instagram from a Paris club, Will Smith’s song “Miami” was playing in the background. But with trade rumors swirling and his future with the Portland Trail Blazers in question, Lillard grinned as the lyrics “I’m going to Miami / welcome to Miami” blasted. It’s obvious why the moment went viral, and perhaps it’ll prove to be serendipitous.

Lillard’s preference is to contend in Portland, but when asked about his most appealing potential trade destinations, he listed the Miami Heat and Brooklyn Nets because of his friendships with Bam Adebayo and Mikal Bridges, respectively. “I want to have an opportunity to win in Portland. And we got an opportunity asset-wise to build a team that can compete,” Lillard said on The Last Stand. “But if we can’t do that, then there’s a separate conversation that we would have to have. We just gotta let things take its course and see where it lands.”

But as the offseason takes shape, the Blazers appear to have chosen to invest in their youth by drafting point guard Scoot Henderson with the third overall pick. Now they have three small guards in him, Lillard, and Anfernee Simons. They have passed on chances to trade for established stars like Paul George. Unless they flip Simons, other young players, and picks for an established player (or two or three), it’s clear that the Blazers front office is going a route that’s the opposite of what Lillard is hoping for.

Both the Heat and Nets are undoubtedly better positioned to contend right now, and Dame could add even more teams to his list. Plenty of franchises would have interest.

Lillard has four years remaining on his contract and will be 33 years old next season, but he’s coming off his most potent regular season ever. He averaged 32.2 points per game on 64.5 percent true shooting, both career highs. He shined in virtually every play type imaginable and would inject elite talent into any team he’s traded to. He’s still in his prime, so it’s understandable why he’d be frustrated that the Blazers aren’t going all in.

With his future in Portland still unsettled, Dame returns from Paris with decisions to be made. Let’s get into what to watch for over the days and weeks to come, the best destinations for him, and what a potential trade would mean for the NBA as a whole.

Welcome to Miami

The allure of Miami is straightforward: sun-drenched beaches, white linen parties, and a team fresh off a Finals appearance. Jimmy Butler has been openly recruiting Lillard after the Heat bypassed the opportunity to go all in on Bradley Beal, who was dealt to the Suns. Adebayo, Butler, and Lillard would form a Big Three, leading a roster with tons of experience and one of the NBA’s best head coaches in Erik Spoelstra. Lillard is precisely what the Heat are missing, a perimeter shotmaker who can help lift their half-court offense to new heights—the final piece. But Dame has concerns.

“They can trade me somewhere that we all say is a contender. But what is it gonna cost for me to get there?” Lillard wondered on The Last Stand. “How is it a guarantee that we’re gonna be playing in June when I get there? How do we know if everybody’s gonna be healthy? How do we know if it’s gonna work out?”

We don’t know at all that it’d work out. But we do know it’d be so expensive that Dame would be Miami’s final big move. The Heat front office can trade its 2028 and 2030 first-rounders, plus offer swaps for 2027 and 2029. Tyler Herro, Nikola Jovic, and Jaime Jaquez are the only three players with value under 25 years old. Considering the price of superstar trades these days, it’d probably take almost all of that to complete a deal with the Blazers. If the deal happens after July 1, for it to work financially, either Kyle Lowry or Duncan Robinson—rather than Victor Oladipo—would need to be packaged with Herro.

If the deal is Herro, Lowry, Jaquez, and some number of picks, this would be the projected rotation after the Heat re-signed their free agents:

Big: Adebayo

Wings: Butler, Caleb Martin, Max Strus, Robinson, Haywood Highsmith

Guards: Lillard, Gabe Vincent

Miami would still need another big or two, but this team would be competitive in the East. It’s not a perfect fit since Butler is a low-volume shooter and Adebayo doesn’t shoot 3s. Spacing would be cramped for Lillard, and on defense the team still wouldn’t be all that big at the wing position, which was an issue against the Nuggets in the Finals.

With Lillard, the Heat would be a contender to return to the Finals, but there’s no guarantee they’d even be the favorites given how the rest of the conference can improve.

Brooklyn Looms for Lillard

The Nets never really got discussed as a viable option for Lillard leading up to the draft, which is strange since they were on Dame’s list. They could match Miami’s best offer and still have assets remaining, alleviating one of Lillard’s concerns about being traded.

Though the Nets don’t have their own firsts until 2028 through 2030, they do have Suns firsts in 2025, 2027, and 2029, plus a swap in 2028 and a Mavericks first in 2029. All of those picks likely have more value than any the Heat can offer due to the age of Phoenix’s core and the fact that Luka Doncic can become a free agent in 2026-27.

The Nets also have young players to dangle: their two picks in last week’s draft (versatile big Noah Clowney and wing Dariq Whitehead) and third-year pros Day’Ron Sharpe and Cam Thomas. To absorb Lillard’s salary, they could give up Ben Simmons, who has only two years remaining on his contract, making him a low-risk addition for a rebuilding Blazers team and someone who (theoretically) has upside if he can return to his prior form. Brooklyn also has expiring deals to offer, rather than the long-term deals Miami would include.

At most, the Heat can offer two firsts and two swaps. If the Nets gave four firsts, they’d still have five remaining future firsts to use in other deals. Let’s say the Nets offer Simmons, Sharpe, Whitehead, and four firsts. This Nets top eight would be in really good position to compete in the East:

Bigs: Nic Claxton, Clowney

Wings: Bridges, Cam Johnson, Royce O’Neale, Dorian Finney-Smith

Guards: Lillard, Spencer Dinwiddie

Brooklyn would be loaded with wings that have size and length, and one of the league’s best defenders at center in Claxton. The Nets would have multiple primary ballhandling options to run the offense: Lillard, Dinwiddie, and Bridges, who showed elite efficiency as a high-volume shot creator even before his trade to the Nets. Butler may be a battle-tested veteran, but Bridges is a rising star.

The Heat would offer a better chance to win a championship in the 2023-24 season, but the Nets would have more upside over the duration of Lillard’s remaining contract. Still, would Lillard want to gamble on a young and inexperienced team over the proven Heat? And would Brooklyn even want to pay what it’d take to acquire Lillard after their past two attempts at adding veterans didn’t lead to a single Finals appearance? The Nets can offer Lillard a better chance to contend than the Blazers, but the marriage wouldn’t be without its drawbacks.

Expanding Lillard’s List

Lillard would be wise to add more teams to his list of acceptable destinations if he’s serious about wanting to contend for a championship. The issue is that there aren’t many teams that need a point guard and have enough assets to appease the Blazers.

Out East, teams like the Cavaliers, Hawks, Knicks, and Pacers already have full backcourts. Same with the Grizzlies, Nuggets, Kings, and Thunder in the West. The Bulls, Mavericks, Suns, and Timberwolves don’t have the assets. The Raptors, Rockets, and Spurs aren’t ready. The Hornets, Magic, Pistons, and Wizards are too young to have any appeal. Teams loaded with assets, like the Jazz and Pelicans, could in theory make strong offers, but would that really work for Lillard given how young those rosters are? I highly doubt it.

This leaves six other teams. A quick look through their situations:

Milwaukee Bucks: Not Happening

Jrue Holiday is an ace defender, but he puts up Eric Bledsoe numbers on offense in the playoffs. The Bucks were threats to pursue Beal and could absolutely use an upgrade at guard. But as was the issue in any Beal deal, with only one future first, two swaps, and no youth to offer, Milwaukee doesn’t have enough assets to appeal to the Blazers.

Philadelphia 76ers: Highly Unlikely

At this point, it seems like James Harden will return to the Sixers, unless things get louder with the Rockets again or with a surprise team. But Lillard would be an upgrade over Harden. The issue? The Sixers have only two future firsts, four swaps, and Tyrese Maxey to put on the table.

Either Los Angeles Team: Highly Unlikely

The Clippers and Lakers both make sense from a basketball standpoint. They’re trying to compete for championships right now. It’d be incredibly challenging for the Lakers to make any deal work financially, though, and they can offer only one future first and four swaps. The Clippers have the salaries to make an acceptable deal, but they have only two firsts and two swaps to offer. I don’t view either team as a viable destination.

Boston Celtics: Why Not?

With Lillard, the Celtics would have a better team on paper than Miami, especially after Boston upgraded the roster with the addition of Kristaps Porzingis, who just had a career-best season. The Celtics could theoretically offer Malcolm Brogdon, Robert Williams, and Payton Pritchard and up to three firsts and two swaps.

But Bleacher Report’s Chris Haynes said recently that Dame wouldn’t go to the Celtics. After Haynes, a close confidant of Dame’s, even laughed at the idea of it, Jayson Tatum signed into one of Lillard’s IG Lives and poked fun at the whole situation.

Could Dame be swayed, though? The Celtics would offer him the best chance to win a championship, so perhaps he’d change his mind like Kevin Garnett did many years ago. Garnett refused to be traded from Minnesota to Boston until then–general manager Danny Ainge met with him in person. KG then accepted a trade and went on to become a legend in Boston.

Golden State Warriors: Let’s Get Crazy!

The Warriors haven’t officially traded Jordan Poole for Chris Paul, which means there’s still time to add additional pieces to a deal. And even if they don’t, Paul’s contract could be flipped outright for Lillard.

The CP3 fit is undeniably strange for the Warriors. Lillard? He’d fit right in. If the Warriors tried to expand on the deal to flip Paul for Dame, they could also offer up to three firsts and three swaps, plus some number of young players, including Jonathan Kuminga, Moses Moody, and the rights to incoming rookies Brandin Podziemski and Trayce Jackson-Davis. Those young players would have to be sent in a non-aggregate deal once the Paul acquisition becomes official.

Lillard grew up a Warriors fan in the Bay Area but has long been reluctant to join a superteam. But Golden State is beyond its superteam phase. This is now an aging team in need of reinforcements, and Lillard would fit right in as a Splash Brother alongside Steph Curry.

Staying in Portland

There is no perfect situation for Lillard, so perhaps he’ll view continuing to build his legacy in Portland as his best option. A two-timeline approach wouldn’t totally appeal to Lillard, but if the Blazers flipped Simons in a bigger trade for a center better than Jusuf Nurkic—and more like Karl-Anthony Towns, less like John Collins—that would help a lot.

But someday Lillard’s jersey will hang in the rafters in Portland no matter what, and while winning a championship with the Blazers would be the sweetest outcome of all, that possibility seems to be gone for Lillard now that the new regime in Portland is intent on building for the future.

Henderson was drafted as the future point guard of the Blazers. Keeping Lillard around could potentially brew a Brett Favre–Aaron Rodgers–esque scenario in which the veteran player overstays his welcome.

The crux now is whether Lillard will opt to stick around for this transition or seek his elusive championship elsewhere. Despite Miami’s more apparent championship road map, the Nets have an allure. And if he opts for exploration, numerous other teams might intrigue him, too. Lillard’s status in Portland is unassailable, but the pursuit of his elusive championship should now take precedence.