2023 NBA Offseason Preview: Miami Heat

June 17, 2023June 17, 2023 Admin

An injury-plagued 2022/23 regular season saw the Heat go 44-38, barely making the playoffs as the No. 8 seed in the East after winning their second play-in game. The rest of the postseason was an entirely different story, with Miami making one of the most remarkable runs in league history.

The Heat dispatched the NBA’s best regular season team, the Bucks, in the first round, defeated the No. 5 seed Knicks in the second round, and triumphed over the Celtics – who held the league’s second-best regular season record – in the Eastern Conference Finals.

The last series was a roller coaster, with Miami reeling off three straight wins – including the first two in Boston – only to see the Celtics rally to even the series at 3-3. The Heat emerged victorious in Game 7 in Boston, getting revenge after being eliminated by the Celtics in similar circumstances last year.

Miami’s Cinderella run ended in the NBA Finals, with the Heat falling to the champion Nuggets in five games. Miami’s defense was outstanding in the Finals, but the offense struggled, scoring 95 or fewer points in all four losses.

It was the second Finals appearance in the past four seasons since the Heat acquired Jimmy Butler in 2019, and they came very close to a third last year. The club will be focused on winning a few more playoff games in ’23/24 in order to bring a fourth NBA championship to Miami.

The Heat’s Offseason Plan

Making the NBA Finals is a very difficult thing to do, and it’s worth acknowledging the accomplishment, even though the Heat were obviously disappointed to fall a little short of their ultimate goal. Despite their success, there could be a significant amount of roster turnover this offseason, in large part due to finances.

Victor Oladipo, who unfortunately sustained another major knee injury in the first round against Milwaukee, is essentially a lock to exercise his $9.45MM player option. Miami is expected to guarantee Haywood Highsmith‘s $1.9MM salary, and the team controls the No. 18 pick in next week’s draft, which has a $3.46MM cap hold.

Assuming the Heat keep that pick — which is far from certain — they would have about $176.6MM committed to 10 players. The luxury tax line is projected to be $162MM, with the new restrictive second tax apron set for $17.5MM above the tax line, or $179.5MM.

That $176.6MM figure does not include any of the team’s free agents, including some key rotation members. The Heat will have Bird rights on Max Strus and Gabe Vincent, who started the entire playoffs. A trio of big men — Kevin Love, Cody Zeller and Omer Yurtseven — make up the other three free agents on standard contracts (Yurtseven will be restricted if given a qualifying offer).

Strus and Vincent are expected to command significant raises on their minimum-salary contracts. The Heat would be facing a major luxury tax bill if they re-signed both players to eight-figure deals. Oladipo is an obvious trade candidate if they’re looking to shed money, as he could miss most or all of next season with the torn patellar tendon.

Butler will be 34 years old in September. As such, the Heat are firmly in win-now mode, and are always on the lookout for star talent — it’s only natural that recent reports have indicated that will continue.

The Heat owe a lottery-protected 2025 first-round pick to Oklahoma City, which complicates, to some extent, their ability to move additional first-rounders. Still, they could include up to three first-round selections – including this year’s No. 18 pick – in a trade offer for a star this summer.

Part of the reason why people around the league expect there to be quite a bit of star player movement this offseason is because the more punitive aspects of the new Collective Bargaining Agreement will be phased in over the next couple seasons. For projected taxpayers like the Heat, that means there’s an opportunity to potentially land a star before those changes fully kick in.

NBA insiders expect Wizards guard Bradley Beal, a three-time All-Star, to be traded at some point this offseason, with the Heat viewed as a natural landing spot. They have the types of salaries (two of Kyle Lowry, Tyler Herro and Duncan Robinson) to match Beal’s huge contract — he’s owed nearly $208MM over the next four seasons, including $46.7MM in ’23/24.

Lowry and Robinson were previously viewed as having negative trade value due to their contracts, but they both played key roles in helping the Heat advance to the Finals. Lowry’s $29.7MM deal expires after next season, while Robinson is still owed $47.5MM through ’25/26 (the final year is partially guaranteed).

Herro, who missed all but one half of the playoffs after breaking a couple of fingers in his right hand, is owed $120MM over the next four seasons after signing a rookie scale extension prior to ’22/23. Caleb Martin is another player worth watching, as “a lot of teams have interest” in his 3-and-D skill set and team-friendly contract — he’s owed $13.9MM over the next two seasons.

However, while he is a very skilled scorer, Beal hasn’t played solid defense for multiple years and has been plagued by injuries of late, appearing in just 90 of a possible 172 games over the past two seasons. Of course, the biggest impediment to acquiring him is his full no-trade clause, which would make it extremely difficult to move him in the future if the Heat were to acquire him.

While I don’t love the fit from Miami’s perspective, reporting on Saturday indicated the team was engaged in serious talks to acquire Beal from Washington. Even if the Heat could land him without giving up any draft capital, which seems unlikely, I would have viewed him as more of a fallback option than a top priority. There’s a real scenario in which they’d need to keep their draft picks just to have a chance of moving him down the line if things went south.

Zach LaVine could hold more appeal, as Chicago is reportedly gauging his trade value. But the Bulls would also be seeking more in return for him than the Wizards would for Beal.

Trail Blazers star Damian Lillard is three years older than Beal (Lillard will be 33 in July; Beal turns 30 in a couple weeks) and nearly five years older than LaVine (28), but he’s also in a different class as a player. The seven-time All-NBA member (vs. one for Beal and zero for LaVine) averaged a career-high 32.2 PPG in ’22/23 along with elite efficiency, posting a Stephen Curry-esque 64.5% true shooting percentage.

None of the three are great defenders, but Lillard is by far the best ball-handler and passer, as well as the most dynamic offensive player and shot-creator. His seemingly unlimited shooting range warps defenses, and he exploits that by utilizing his underrated ability to drive and draw fouls — he averaged a career-best 9.6 free throw attempts in ’22/23 and converted 91.4% at the charity stripe. Miami ranked just 25th in offense during the regular season, so they do need help on that end despite their impressive playoff run.

Still, even though Lillard recently listed the Heat as a team he would want to join if he ever asked for a trade, there’s no indication that will happen anytime soon, and I’m skeptical they’d have enough assets to deal for him unless he explicitly says he only wants to join Miami. He has also dealt with his own injuries the past couple years, and will make even more money than Beal over the next four seasons. Obviously, acquiring him would be a risk, since he’ll be 36 at the end of the contract.

I don’t see Bam Adebayo going anywhere, even if a major star unexpectedly submits a trade request — perhaps someone like Joel Embiid, for example. Adebayo is too important to the team’s culture, and he won’t turn 26 until next month. He’ll also be eligible for a lucrative extension this offseason, but financially it makes more sense for him to wait on that decision. If he makes an All-NBA team or wins Defensive Player of the Year in ’23/24, he’ll meet the performance criteria for a super-max extension, which requires players to have at least seven years of experience (Adebayo just completed his sixth season).

Salary Cap Situation

Guaranteed Salary

Jimmy Butler ($45,183,960)
Bam Adebayo ($32,600,060)
Kyle Lowry ($29,682,540)
Tyler Herro ($27,000,000)
Duncan Robinson ($18,154,000)
Caleb Martin ($6,802,950)
Nikola Jovic ($2,352,000)
Total: $161,775,510

Dead/Retained Salary

Player Options

Team Options

Non-Guaranteed Salary

Haywood Highsmith ($1,902,137)
- Note: Highsmith’s salary would become fully guaranteed if he’s not waived on or before July 5.
Total: $1,902,137

Restricted Free Agents

Two-Way Free Agents

Draft Picks

No. 18 overall pick ($3,458,400)
Total: $3,458,400

Extension-Eligible Players

Bam Adebayo (veteran)
Kyle Lowry (veteran)

Note: These are players who are either already eligible for an extension or will become eligible before the 2023/24 season begins.

Unrestricted Free Agents / Other Cap Holds

Kevin Love ($3,736,966 cap hold): Non-Bird rights
Udonis Haslem ($1,989,698 cap hold): Bird rights
Max Strus ($1,989,698 cap hold): Bird rights
Gabe Vincent ($1,989,698 cap hold): Bird rights
Cody Zeller ($1,989,698 cap hold): Non-Bird rights
Jordan Mickey ($1,989,698 cap hold): Non-Bird rights
Dwyane Wade ($1,989,698 cap hold): Early Bird rights
Total: $15,675,154

Note: The cap holds for Mickey and Wade remain on the Heat’s books from prior seasons because they haven’t been renounced. They can’t be used in a sign-and-trade deal.

Cap Exceptions Available