Denver Nuggets vs. Miami Heat odds, tips and betting trends

May 30, 2023May 30, 2023 Admin

The Denver Nuggets and Miami Heat are facing off in the NBA Finals, with Game 1 up next.

The Nuggets head into their game against the Heat as an 8.5-point favorite. The game’s over/under is set at 219.

Nuggets vs. Heat Betting Odds

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list.

Spread: Denver -8.5
Total: 219
Moneyline: Denver -384, Miami +305

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Heat at Nuggets odds, spread, & more

Prediction

Moneyline

Denver has won 43, or 70.5%, of the 61 contests in which it was the favorite this year.
This year, Denver has won 15 of 20 games when listed as at least -384 or better on the moneyline.
Bookmakers have implied with the moneyline set for this matchup that Denver has a 79.3% chance of pulling out a win.

Miami has put together an 8-16 record in games it was listed as the moneyline underdog (winning 33.3% of those games).
Miami has played as a moneyline underdog of +305 or longer in just one game this season, which it lost.
Miami has a 24.7% chance to win this contest based on the moneyline’s implied probability.

Against the spread

The Nuggets average 115.8 points per game, six more points than the 109.8 the Heat allow.
Denver has a 38-21-2 record against the spread and a 48-13 record overall when scoring more than 109.8 points.
Miami has a 25-33-3 record against the spread and a 38-23 record overall when giving up fewer than 115.8 points.
The Heat put up an average of 109.5 points per game, only three fewer points than the 112.5 the Nuggets allow.
When it scores more than 112.5 points, Miami is 15-14-1 against the spread and 22-8 overall.
Denver’s record is 27-6-1 against the spread and 28-6 overall when it allows fewer than 109.5 points.
The Nuggets are at the 12th spot in the NBA’s scoring charts (115.8 PPG), while the Heat allow the second-fewest points per game (109.8) in the league.
Miami is the NBA’s lowest-scoring offense (109.5 PPG), while Denver is the eighth-ranked defense (112.5).
The Nuggets have out-scored their opponents by a total of 273 points this season (3.3 points per game on average), and opponents of the Heat have out-scored them by 26 more points on the year (0.3 per game).

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Denver has an average implied point total of 118.2 this season, which is 4.2 points higher than its implied total in Thursday’s game (114).
So far this season, Denver has scored more than 114 points in a game 50 times.
Miami’s average implied point total on the year (112.4 points) is 7.4 points higher than its implied total in this matchup (105 points).

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How to watch Nuggets vs. Heat

Game Day: Thursday, June 1, 2023
Game Time: 8:30 PM ET
TV Channel: ABC
Location: Denver, Colorado
Arena: Ball Arena
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