3 reasons the Heat will win Game 7 vs. Celtics despite collapse
Things aren’t looking great for the Miami Heat—a 3-0 lead over the Boston Celtics in the Eastern Conference Finals has quickly turned into a 3-3 deadlock with a decisive Game 7 in Boston looming on Monday. Jimmy Butler, their talismanic wing who was eliciting unironic conspiracies that he was Michael Jordan’s bastard son, has suddenly looked more like Marcus Jordan, Michael Jordan’s actual son. The formula that lifted the Heat past the top-seeded Bucks in the first round of the playoffs and the resurgent Knicks in the second seems to have reached its expiration point.
Just a week ago, the Heat were poised to become just the second eight-seed to ever make the Finals; now, they’re on the brink of becoming the first NBA team to ever blow a 3-0 lead in the playoffs. Still, hope isn’t lost. Here is why the Miami Heat will stave off an epic collapse and beat the Celtics to make the NBA Finals.
1. Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo will turn it around
After dominating the first two rounds of the playoffs, Butler has hit a wall in his last few games against the Celtics. Namely, on Saturday, Butler trudged through one of the worst shooting performances of his entire career, making just five of 21 shots (but somehow still scored 25 points by grifting his way to 14 free throws). Bam Adebayo, Butler’s co-pilot, was similarly bad, getting absolutely clamped by the Celtics’ frontline and mustering just 11 points on 4 of 16 shooting. If either one of Butler or Adebayo had merely a bad shooting night instead of a cataclysmic one, the Heat would have won Game 6 handily.
Luckily, Butler and Adebayo are unlikely to produce two lemons in a row. They’re too good to play that badly—one bad game doesn’t instantly turn an All Star into a scrub. To wit, Butler has long been a killer in important playoff games; in Game 7 of the Eastern Conference Finals last year, Butler scored 35 as the Heat came up agonizingly short against the Celtics. While Butler has nursed a gimpy ankle since Game 2 of the second round, it seemingly hasn’t slowed him down too badly. Down 89-98 with under four minutes in Game 6, Butler rallied late, scoring 12 of the Heat’s final 14 points to give them the lead with 3 seconds left. The normal rules of exhaustion or fatigue don’t really apply to Butler; he’s got that dog in him and it snarls at conventional wisdom.
As such, it’s fool-hardy to assume that Butler will play badly in Game 7 just because he played badly in Game 6 and Game 5 (where he was uncharacteristically passive and scored only 14 points on 10 shots). Butler’s last four playoff runs have demonstrated that he’s a master of timing, capable of delivering his best games in the biggest moments. Game 7 shouldn’t be any different.
2. The Heat have the better supporting cast than the Celtics
In terms of star power, this series has roughly been a wash. Jimmy Butler and Jayson Tatum are equally brilliant, a pair of no-doubt top ten players in the NBA; Bam Adebayo and Jaylen Brown are also both All-NBA caliber guys, albeit not quite at the level of their starrier teammates. But at this point in the playoffs, everybody has good players; having two elite players isn’t a trump card as much as it is an expectation. In this sense, the Heat have succeeded because of their supporting cast, leaning heavily on undrafted guys such as Max Strus, Caleb Martin, Gabe Vincent and Duncan Robinson throughout their playoff run.
Nothing is especially special about any individual member of the Heat’s cadre of undrafted players, but the cumulative effect that they have is remarkable. Vincent, Strus and Martin are the rare secondary players who can capably defend while also threatening defenses as shooters, drivers and passers; they don’t take anything off the table or limit the Heat’s possibilities on either end. On offense, they allow the Heat to run a multi-pronged attack, mixing in fluid dribble drives and kickouts with bruising Jimmy Butler isolations. On defense, they offer all around solidity and versatility, allowing the Heat to toggle between man to man and zone from possession to possession.
3. Coaching
Erik Spoelestra is the best coach in the NBA; Joe Mazzulla, the Celtics’ wet-behind the ears coach, is barely a competent one. The gulf between the two is the only reason this series is tied in the first place. Even when the Celtics succeed, it feels like it’s in spite of Mazzulla more than because of him. On their miraculous buzzer beater to steal Game 6, Derrick White’s tip-in obscured the fact that Mazzulla drew up a clunker—the first option seemed to be Jayson Tatum catching the ball 40 feet from the basket and the second option was a desperate heave from Marcus Smart. In a winner-take-all game to go to the Finals, the Celtics won’t have the time or space to impose their talent advantage. Instead, Spoelstra’s wizardry will shine through as he devises a pitch-perfect game plan for the Heat to beat the Celtics.
