Miami Heat at Charlotte Hornets odds, picks and predictions

The Miami Heat (28-22) visit the Charlotte Hornets (14-36) Sunday in a Southeast Division battle. Tip-off from Spectrum Center is set for 1 p.m. ET. Below, we analyze Tipico Sportsbook’s lines around the Heat vs. Hornets odds, and make our expert NBA picks and predictions.

The Heat are coming off a 110-105 win vs. the Orlando Magic Friday to end a 3-game homestand. The Heat went 3-0 during the stretch but 1-2 against the spread (ATS), including not covering as 8.5-point favorites vs. the Magic. They have won 7 of their last 9 and lead the Southeast by 3 games.

Charlotte is coming off a blowout 111-96 home win as 3-point underdogs vs. the Chicago Bulls Thursday. The victory was the Hornets’ 3rd in their last 5 games — they also went 3-2 ATS in the span. Prior to the stretch, the Hornets lost 5 in a row and 10 of 12.

Charlotte is last in the division and lost each of the first 2 games against Miami this season. They were back-to-back games in South Florida — a 117-112 setback in overtime as 10.5-point underdogs (Nov. 10) and a 132-115 loss as 8.5-point dogs (Nov. 12).

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Heat at Hornets odds

Provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Saturday at 11:30 p.m. ET.

• Moneyline (ML): Heat -240 (bet $240 to win $100) | Hornets +200 (bet $100 to win $200)
• Against the spread: Heat -6.5 (-105) | Hornets +6.5 (-115)
• Over/Under (O/U): 222.5 (O: -108 | U: -112)

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Heat at Hornets key injuries

Heat

• F Nikola Jovic (back) out
• F Duncan Robinson (finger) out

Hornets

• G Cody Martin (knee) out
• F Kelly Oubre Jr. (hand) out
• G Dennis Smith Jr. (illness) probable

For most recent updates: Official NBA injury report.

Heat at Hornets picks and predictions

Prediction

Heat 108, Hornets 101

Moneyline

AVOID.

The Heat (-240) should win this game as the line suggests, but due to the lopsidedness of the -240 line and the fact that Miami is the road team, steer clear of a wager here. The risk is not worth the possible reward.

Against the spread

LEAN HEAT +6.5 (-105).

In the past 7 head-to-head meetings — all Miami wins — the Heat have dominated ATS, going 5-1-1. In the last 9, they’re 6-2-1 ATS vs. the Hornets.

Miami is the more fundamental team and has more savvy veterans and are much better defensively, making this a tough matchup for Charlotte.

Over/Under

BET UNDER 222.5 (-112).

All the trends point to the Under.

Miami has been consistently cashing Under tickets recently.

The Under is 4-0 in the Heat’s last 4 games, 6-2 in the last 8 and 10-3 in the last 13.

The Under is also 7-1 in Miami’s last 8 games vs. teams with a losing record, and the Under is 8-3 in the last 11 Miami-Charlotte games.

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