Dolphins playoff picture: Miami’s updated AFC wild-card chances entering Week 18

The Dolphins dropped their fifth consecutive game Sunday, losing on the road, 23-21 to the Patriots. That puts Miami at 8-8 with only one game left to play in the 2022 NFL regular season.

Miami is fading at the wrong time, suddenly in shaky position to break through for the playoffs in the first season under rookie coach Mike McDaniel.

Here’s breaking down the Dolphins’ current playoff chances to earn an AFC wild-card berth.

MORE: Updated NFL standings, playoff picture for Week 17

Dolphins playoff picture

The Dolphins exit Week 17 out of the final AFC wild-card spot. They slipped to No. 8, behind the No. 7 Patriots (8-8), who have the tiebreaker despite a season split because of the better division record.

The Dolphins are also now even with the No. 9 Steelers (8-8), who beat the Ravens on Monday night. The Jets were eliminated behind the Dolphins when they fell to 7-9.

What playoff tiebreakers are in the Dolphins’ favor?

The Dolphins lose the tiebreaker to the Patriots based on division records, as Miami is only 2-3 and New England improved to 3-2. The Dolphins win the tiebreaker over the Steelers thanks to a Week 7 home win.

Dolphins’ remaining schedule

The Dolphins face the Jets at home in Week 18. They need to win that game to have a chance to earn a wild-card berth. If they lose to the Jets, they would be eliminated because the Patriots hold the tiebreaker over them and the Steelers and the Steelers can sneak into the playoffs with a win should the Dolphins and Patriots lose.

Can the Dolphins still make the playoffs?

The Dolphins are looking at a 50-50 chance of making the playoffs, but that’s dropped significantly from being a near sure thing just a couple weeks ago. They need to first take care of their win and hope the No. 1 seed-motivated Bills come through for them against the Patriots.