Miami Dolphins vs. New England Patriots Prediction, Preview, and Odds
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The (8-7) Miami Dolphins and (7-8) New England Patriots will tangle in Foxborough, MA, on Sunday at Gillette Stadium. In Week One, Miami defeated New England 20-7 at home. The Dolphins, 3-5 in road games this season, have lost four straight games. The Patriots, 3-4 at home, have lost consecutive one-score games to Las Vegas and Cincinnati.
Kickoff is at 1:00 p.m. ET. The Patriots opened as one-point underdogs, but the line has shifted in favor of the home team, who are 2.5-point spread favorites. The game total is 41 points scored.
Is Miami ready to play without Tagovailoa?
The Dolphins are sliding, with four straight losses jeopardizing what was once a promising season. Miami must find a way to win without quarterback Tua Tagovailoa (3,548 passing yards, 68.8 QBR), who is in concussion protocol after suffering another concerning injury against the Bengals. The winner of Sunday’s matchup with New England will likely earn a postseason berth, placing Miami’s fate in Teddy Bridgewater’s hands.
”I’m excited to get an opportunity to play some football, some meaningful football,” the 30-year-old said. ”Looking forward to this opportunity we have to get into the tournament.”
Heading into Week 13, things were looking great in Miami, as the Dolphins were 8-3 and riding a five-game win streak. With Tagovailoa leading the way, the biggest question on ‘Fins fans’ minds was whether the team could beat out Buffalo for the AFC East title. Now, it’s postseason or bust.
Back to work đź’Ş pic.twitter.com/Oyak44ctni
— Miami Dolphins (@MiamiDolphins) December 29, 2022
The Dolphins are scoring 24.3 points and averaging 370.8 total yards per game, including 95.9 rushing yards and 274.9 passing yards. They won’t have Tua on Sunday, but Bridgewater still has receivers Tyreek Hill (1,632 receiving yards and 7 TDs) and Jaylen Waddle (1,260 receiving yards and 8 TDs) at his disposal. Miami is 22nd in third down conversion percentage (37.2%) and 10th in red zone touchdown scoring percentage (60.0%).
Miami surrenders 24.7 points and 353.8 total yards per game, including 109.1 rushing yards and 244.7 passing yards. It’s ranked 25th in opponent third down conversion percentage (41.6%) and 24th in opponent red zone touchdown scoring percentage (60.0%). The Dolphins have the third-fewest takeaways this season (14).
New England is still figuring it out
New England has a golden opportunity to sneak into the playoffs with wins in its final two games. According to FiveThirtyEight, the Patriots have a 20 percent chance of making the postseason. What seemed like a lost season still has the potential to be memorable, but it will take a consistent effort over the next eight quarters for New England to make it happen.
In last week’s home loss to the Bengals, the Pats rallied from a 22-0 halftime deficit but couldn’t pull off the comeback win despite holding Cincy to zero second-half scores. The Patriots had the ball on Cincinnati’s five-yard line with just over a minute left and had another opportunity before the clock ran out, but they couldn’t capitalize. The Bengals accumulated 442 total yards, as Cincy QB Joe Burrow passed for 375 yards and three touchdowns. New England’s defense forced three turnovers, but the offense managed just 285 total yards, including 61 rushing yards, and held the ball for only 23 minutes and 12 seconds.
A Christmas Eve battle with the Bengals.
Saturday’s sights & sounds. pic.twitter.com/I3dtxNlp1i
— New England Patriots (@Patriots) December 28, 2022
The Patriots are scoring 21.2 points and averaging 317.2 total yards per game, including 108.6 rushing yards and 208.6 passing yards. Second-year pro Mac Jones leads the passing attack with 2,550 yards, nine touchdowns, and eight interceptions. Rhamondre Stevenson paces the ground game with 944 rushing yards and five touchdowns. New England is ranked 26th in third down conversion percentage (34.9%) and 32nd in red zone touchdown scoring percentage (38.4%).
The Patriots surrender 19.4 points and 320.9 total yards per game, including 107.8 rushing yards and 213.1 passing yards. They have forced the fourth-most turnovers in the league this season (23). New England is ranked 21st in opponent third down conversion percentage (40.0%) and 15th in opponent red zone touchdown conversion percentage (55.5%).
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New England is 0-4 in its last four and 2-6 overall when receiving points this season. The weather forecast also calls for a likely chance of rain, which favors the Dolphins, who are 4-0 ATS in their last four meetings with the Patriots.
New England’s defense can stand up in the red zone against inferior competition but doesn’t play that well against good teams. They’ve been on the field too often (New England has lost the time of possession in each of its past five games) and have not looked great in four of the past five, giving up 33, 24, 30, and 22 points in those games. Furthermore, the Pats’ offense is a wet blanket, with poor offensive line and quarterback play. They’re worst in the league at converting red zone opportunities into touchdowns and have failed to take advantage of the defense’s contributions (five defensive touchdowns this season).
Miami won’t have to play too conservatively without Tua, especially against this New England pass defense. Bridgewater is a seasoned vet (42-20 career ATS record) with two alpha playmakers in Hill and Waddle, and the Patriots are 28th against the pass (244.7 yards per contest). It’s not going to look pretty at times, but as long as Miami can keep New England’s pass rush at bay (50 sacks), they’ll control the time of possession and cover the spread.
Prediction: Miami +2.5
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The under is 5-1 in the Patriots’ last six vs. AFC and 5-0 in their last five games following a straight-up loss. It’s also 4-1 in the last five meetings between Miami and New England.
The Patriots could be without most of their secondary, as cornerbacks Jalen Mills (groin), Jack Jones (knee), and Marcus Jones (concussion) are all questionable for Sunday’s game. That’s concerning, particularly with Hill and Waddle taking the field for Miami.
New England’s offense could also run into problems against a Miami defense that’s played better against the run in four of their past five matchups and has recorded 19 sacks in the last six weeks. The Patriots aren’t converting third downs, punting too often, and are flopping in the red zone, settling for too many field goals.
In what should be a rainy afternoon game, I’ll bet on the under at 41 points scored.
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Prediction: Under 41
