Ian impact: Florida real estate market lags rest of nation, Jacksonville among worst; but good news too
- Jacksonville pending home sales dropped 57 percent in November, tied for 3rd worst in the nation
- Ian’s impact pushed mortgage delinquencies up, causing Florida to lead the nation last month
- Despite economic trends, eight of the top ten metro areas for year-over-year home price increases are in Florida
Florida real estate watchers are in head-scratching mode as mortgage rates drop, but mixed economic reports show a concerning decrease in pending home sales and overall buyer interest. Data from a pair of real estate analytics companies also indicates that Florida is leading the nation in home price increases, while at the same time, among the worst states for over the past month in pending home sales.
Redfin Real Estate Data Center found that among the 50 most populous U.S. metros, pending sales fell the most from a year earlier in Las Vegas (-64%), Austin (-58.2%), Phoenix (-57%), Jacksonville, FL (-57%) and Sacramento (-54%). The data is current through November 20th, 2022.
Florida also leads the nation in mortgage delinquencies, with over 19,000 last month, pushing the state delinquency rate to 3.42%, an initial indication of Hurricane Ian’s impact on the real estate market, according to Black Knight, Inc., a Florida-based real estate analytics company.
The news isn’t all bad for Florida, which still dominates the year-over-year home price increase charts. Eight of the Top-10 markets nationally are based in Florida. Naples, at 42.2% over last year’s market prices, leads the nation, followed by Bradenton at 31.2%, Boca Raton at 27.7%, and Clearwater, at 24%. Lehigh Acres, Palm Bay, Miami, and Pompano Beach rounded out the remainder of Florida cities. Tulsa, Oklahoma (5th overall) and Fayetteville, North Carolina (10th overall) were the only non-Florida cities to crack the national top ten.
But those prices are likely to come down, say some national analysts. Axios reported early Monday that one economics analyst was predicting a “collapse” in U.S. home prices, while Goldman Sachs called for a decline of about 4 percent overall. Other economic experts said the low overall unemployment rate, which would keep mortgage defaults in check, combined with the low overall inventory of houses would act as a floor to temper the decline.
