A look at what ESPN’s analytics say about Miami’s bowl eligibility chances

November 20, 2022 Admin

The Miami Hurricanes have bowl eligibility on the line in the regular season finale against Pittsburgh this week.

Going into the season, Miami and Pitt were viewed as the favorites to contend for the Coastal Division. The regular season results haven’t played out that way, however.

Miami (5-6, 3-4) needs one more win to be eligible for a bowl game.

Pittsburgh (7-4, 4-3) has won three in a row after starting with a disappointing 4-4 record. The Panthers are coming off a 28-26 win over Duke.

Miami has bounced back and forth between wins and losses dating back to the start of ACC play against North Carolina on October 8th.

The Hurricanes have won four straight games against Pittsburgh with the last defeat coming in 2017 in heartbreaking fashion as UM entered that game ranked No. 2 in the country, according to the College Football Playoff Ranking.

What does the ESPN Football Power Index project going into this game?

The FPI gives UM a 44.7 percent chance to win.

Here’s how the FPI is calculated: The Football Power Index (FPI) is a measure of team strength that is meant to be the best predictor of a team’s performance going forward for the rest of the season. FPI represents how many points above or below average a team is. Projected results are based on 10,000 simulations of the rest of the season using FPI, results to date, and the remaining schedule. Ratings and projections update daily.

The FPI ranks Miami as the No. 63 overall team in the country.

Pittsburgh is scoring 30.1 points per game while allowing 24.1 points per game this season.

Quarterback Kedon Slovis has thrown for 2,135 yards with seven touchdowns and eight interceptions. Running back Israel Abanikanda has been a workhorse for Pittsburgh’s attack this year, totaling 1,320 yards with 18 touchdowns on the ground.

Defensive tackle Calijah Kancey, an alum of Miami Northwestern High School, leads the Pittsburgh defense with seven sacks and 46 quarterback pressures on the year. Pro Football Focus grades Kancey as with a 91.3 defense grade.

The last time Miami did not go to a bowl game in the postseason was 2011-12, when the Hurricanes self imposed a bowl ban due to a NCAA investigation. Miami was bowl eligible in those seasons, however.

The last time Miami was not bowl eligible was in 2007, the first season of the Randy Shannon era, with the Hurricanes going 5-7 that year.