Miami vs. Florida State match-up breakdown and prediction
Miami’s passing game is averaging 290 yards per game, but the Hurricanes rank 80th nationally in team pass efficiency defense.
Is Tyler Van Dyke going to be available this week? That’s the key question for Miami’s offense going into this game and as the week has progressed, it is fair to say the feeling on Van Dyke’s status has gone from doubtful to probable.
Van Dyke has thrown for 1,728 yards with ten touchdowns and four interceptions this season. He has completed 64.1 percent of his attempts. He sustained a shoulder injury while taking a sack against Duke in the second quarter of the October 22nd match-up.
Miami’s passing game has been inconsistent for the majority of the season, but in the two games prior to that Duke contest, Van Dyke threw for 838 yards with five touchdowns and one interception.
If Van Dyke is unable to play on Saturday, Jake Garcia will make his second start as a Hurricane. Garcia didn’t have much success in a starting role at Virginia last week, completing 15-of-31 passes for 125 yards.
Jacurri Brown is also working into the mix as a true freshman and has carved out a role in short yardage situations as a runner. Brown is 0-for-1 as a passer.
If Van Dyke is playing, his top target, Xavier Restrepo, figures to get more work after making his debut last week on a fixed snap count against Virginia. Restrepo had been out since week two of the season. With Restrepo out, Colbie Young emerged as the top receiver as a downfield threat at 6-feet-5 and 215 pounds. Young has caught 23 passes for 217 yards and four touchdowns in essentially four games of work.
Tight end Will Mallory is Miami’s leading receiver on the season, catching 28 passes for 371 yards and one touchdown.
From a pass protection standpoint, Miami’s offensive line has performed at an average level. The group has dealt with injuries and right guard is the position to watch with the Hurricanes forced to start true freshman Anez Cooper at Virginia. UM’s pass protection grades out No. 46 in the country, according to Pro Football Focus.
Florida State’s pass defense is not a strength this season, but it is solid enough.
The Seminoles rank No. 14 nationally in passing yards allowed at 177 yards per game through the air and No. 67 in team pass efficiency defense. FSU is generating 2.88 sacks per game.
Again, FSU’s pass defense is solid, but their numbers are boosted by playing poor passing attacks like Georgia Tech, NC State’s back-up quarterback in the second half, a Boston College team that can’t block, and Duquesne.
The folks at Pro Football Focus grade FSU’s coverage as the 94th best in the country and pass rush No. 53 nationally.
The Seminoles have intercepted four passes on the year.
FSU’s outside cornerback tandem of Renardo Green and Jarrian Jones have combined for 51 tackles on the year while allowing 24 receptions on 42 targets for 265 yards and one touchdown.
The best pass rusher for the Seminoles is Jared Verse, who has totaled 16 pressures and 4.5 sacks in 118 pass rushing snaps in seen games. Derrick McClendon leads FSU with 20 pressures and three sacks.
Edge: Even. This is assuming that Tyler Van Dyke is playing. If he doesn’t then FSU has the edge here.
