Lionel Messi to MLS? What the PSG, Argentina star could mean for Inter Miami, U.S. soccer

After David Beckham and his Inter Miami partners were awarded MLS’ 25th franchise in late January 2018, the man who revolutionized the league as a player for the LA Galaxy shared a video message from Lionel Messi on his Instagram account. “Who knows, maybe in a few years you will give me a call,” Messi concluded after congratulating Beckham on the new project. 

As The Athletic’s David Ornstein reported on Monday, that call eventually came, and Inter Miami is now confident in Messi’s eventual arrival.  

Four-year-old social media posts aside, the potential for Messi to move to Miami has only increased with time. In 2020, he told Spanish network La Sexta, “I would like to play in the United States one day, it’s always been one of my dreams.” Messi and his family have made numerous visits to the Miami area, last year staying in nearby Key Biscayne. The appeal of South Florida to someone like Messi is clear: the sun, the lifestyle, perhaps slightly less scrutiny than he’s faced in Europe and his native Argentina, plus the presence of large, Spanish-speaking South American communities.

And as much as Messi likes the area, Inter Miami has long been just as interested in him. 

In June 2021, Inter Miami co-owner Jorge Mas told The Athletic, “It’s not out of the question that Lionel Messi will wear an Inter Miami uniform at some point in time. … . David and I are working very hard at making something like that happen, which I think is not only transformational for Miami, but I think for the league. That will propel a very important discussion among us and the league, because I think we have to do everything in our power to facilitate a Lionel Messi coming to Miami and coming to the MLS. … I will push as hard as I can, personally, in making that happen.”

Messi’s current contract with PSG is set to expire at the end of the 2022-23 season, so the soonest he could arrive in Miami is the summer of 2023, likely after taking some time to rest and recover following a long season that includes the unusual interruption of this month’s World Cup. It would mean jumping into MLS in the middle of its season, which Beckham did with the LA Galaxy in the summer of 2007 and Gareth Bale did with LAFC this year. 

But regardless of when it comes, Messi’s arrival in the U.S. would be the latest in what’s been a trend of transformational footballers advancing American soccer with their presence, starting with Pelé in the 1970s and continuing with Beckham in the 2000s.

No single player in the history of American men’s soccer has had as seismic an effect on the trajectory of the game in this country as Pelé. The Brazilian legend famously joined the New York Cosmos of the nascent North American Soccer League in 1975. The Cosmos, backed by the corporate might of media empire Warner Communications, were seeking to do what no other soccer club in American history has ever done: make soccer truly, deeply relevant in this country. For a brief time, it appeared as though they might succeed. 

Pelé’s mere presence with the Cosmos certainly had some short-term benefits: the club’s average home attendance increased from around 3,500 fans in 1975 to around 45,000 by the time of his departure after the 1977 season. Three times, the Cosmos drew over 70,000 fans to watch Pele at Giants Stadium, an unheard of feat in that era. Away matches featuring the Cosmos became featured attractions; his presence attracted other giants of the game to the NASL — George Best, Johan Cruyff, Franz Beckenbauer, Gerd Muller and more. 

What Pelé could not do, however, was save the NASL. His outsized impact on the Cosmos inspired an upward trend in spending that would eventually contribute to the demise of the league in 1984. 

Pelé’s impact, beyond a shadow of a doubt, was generational. In the ‘70s, when Cosmos president Clive Toye approached the Brazilian in an attempt to lure him to the States, he made a fairly simple pitch — you’ve won many games and many trophies. In the United States, you have a chance to win an entire country over, and be a soccer missionary.

In a way, it worked. Though the NASL collapsed, the kids who watched Pelé during his three-year stay in the United States became the U.S.’s first great generation of soccer players, the pioneers who qualified for the 1990 World Cup and featured four years later in the ‘94 edition of the tournament on home soil. From the wreckage of the NASL, the founders of Major League Soccer — some of whom had also owned NASL clubs — learned their own lessons. They chose a more reasonable path of financial prudence, one that has kept the league alive for nearly twice as long as the NASL ever existed. 

So when Beckham arrived in MLS in 2007, the league was better equipped to make the most of their new global superstar than the NASL ever was. That season, the league had 13 teams, just three more than its inaugural season in 1996 — including newcomers Toronto FC, who paid a $10 million expansion fee to join MLS — and average league-wide attendance of 16,770 (over three million total). 

In 2022, MLS has 28 teams — including newcomers Charlotte FC, who paid a $325 million expansion fee to join the league — and league-wide average attendance of 21,033 (more than 10 million total). Next season, a 29th club, St. Louis City SC, will join the league. 

That supercharged growth is largely thanks to Beckham. 

Without doubt, MLS has more global awareness than at any other time in our history and has more legitimacy in the United States because of David,” MLS commissioner David Beckham told the New York Times in November 2007. “Every measure of our business has grown because of him. … We have sold more than 300,000 Beckham Los Angeles Galaxy jerseys, which was 700 times the number of Galaxy jerseys sold in 2006. Merchandise sales over all have gone up two or three times. International TV sales have gone up from next to nothing to distribution in 100 countries, with live games in Asia and Mexico.”

Messi’s presence in MLS would have a similar effect on league-wide attendance, international exposure, merchandise sales and in attracting other talented players as Pelé and Beckham before him, even though he is joining a league that’s in a stronger position than either of his predecessors. It is difficult to imagine that any MLS stadium would not be full to watch a man that many peg as the greatest player in the history of the game. If anything, MLS’ soccer-specific stadiums, many of which hold 18,000 to 30,000 people, might not be big enough to maximize gate revenue when Messi comes to town, given that crowds of 60,000 to 80,000 turned out to see Messi on a Barcelona preseason tour in 2017. 

The economic impact that Messi would have on Inter Miami alone is its own story. 

If the numbers that PSG have reported since Messi’s arrival in Paris are any indication, Inter Miami will become among the most popular brands in American sports. According to a report from Marca, PSG generated €700 million in revenue over the course of one year after his arrival. 

The report cites an investigation by Argentine outlet El Economista, which reported that since Messi joined the club, PSG had added 10 new sponsorship deals ranging from €3 to €8 million each. Image rights and match day sales also skyrocketed, as has demand for Messi’s No. 30 PSG shirt. In July, Diario Ole in Argentina revealed that only Real Madrid had sold more shirts than PSG since Messi’s arrival in France, with 60 percent of PSG shirts sold being Messi’s. 

On social media, PSG has seen its following increase astronomically. PSG gained 5.6 million followers the week after announcing Messi’s signing and have since added 15 million new followers across its social media platforms. PSG also became the most followed French company on Instagram. Messi’s personal Instagram following of 370 million dwarfs LeBron James’ 137 million and Tom Brady’s 12.8 million. 

“He is the most impactful player on the planet. Moving to any MLS club would fundamentally change the fabric of the league,” AJ Swoboda, managing director for the Americas at sports consultancy Twenty First Group, told The Athletic’s Matt Slater last year. 

Messi is a marketer’s dream. Not only would he significantly alter the brand equity of both Inter Miami and MLS, he would also boost his personal interests, as well. Establishing a more substantial presence in the U.S. would attract even more sponsorships and business opportunities, which could even extend to following in Beckham’s footsteps further by owning an MLS club himself one day — perhaps one in Las Vegas.  

And the timing of his potential arrival could be perfect for the league. 

2023 will mark the beginning of what the league is billing as a groundbreaking new, 10-year deal in which Apple will show every MLS match on its Apple TV streaming service.

While we don’t yet know exactly what the broadcasts will look like, we do know that the foundation of the $2.5 billion agreement rests on Apple selling subscriptions. Apple will make slightly more than 40 percent of its MLS inventory available for free to anyone with an internet connection next year, but the remaining nearly 60 percent of MLS games will only be available on the to-be-named MLS subscription service that will live within Apple TV. The exact price of that channel has not yet been announced, but revenue from it is how Apple will make back its average annual payout of $250 million to MLS. 

MLS has long had poor viewership for its nationally broadcast matches, a trend that continued in 2022. According to Sports Business Journal, average MLS regular season viewership fell six percent on the Fox family of networks to 198,000 per game this year. Spanish-language telecasts on the Univision networks dipped 14 percent to 244,0000 from 2021. Average viewership for MLS matches on ESPN’s English-language networks grew by 12 percent, but that figure was driven by a doubling of the number of matches shown on the ABC broadcast network. The average viewership for matches on ABC actually went down by seven percent to 469,000 this season, while average viewership on ESPN fell two percent to 252,000 in 2022.

That’s a small potential domestic audience for Apple, though it should be noted that the company will be selling MLS subscriptions all over the world, not just in the U.S. 

When one accounts for the fact that every MLS season ticket account will get one free subscription to Apple’s MLS streaming service in 2023, and for the idea that the league is looking to simulcast select matches on linear TV in the U.S. and Canada, that slice of potential subscribers gets even smaller.

Given all that, it’s clear that MLS and Apple could use a bit of a boost to help sell subscriptions in 2023. Messi would provide that and then some. No matter where he’s playing, his matches are appointment viewing for a significant subset of global soccer fans. Not all of them would buy the MLS subscription service within Apple TV, of course, but some surely would. Others who may be on the fence about purchasing the MLS package in Apple TV could be pushed to buy it should Miami sign Messi. 

Would that alone result in millions of new subscribers? That seems very unlikely. But it’d no doubt get a decent amount in the door. 

And then there are on-field matters. To put it lightly, Inter Miami won’t have the supporting cast that Messi enjoys with his national team or PSG, or anything like the assembly line of quality young players he elevated at Barcelona. In fact, following the imposed sanctions for breaking the league’s budget rules and assessments that Inter Miami “launched a brand, not a team,” Miami remains a mid-table MLS side at best, despite qualifying for the 2022 playoffs. 

Who would coach Messi in Miami is another interesting storyline. Phil Neville has led the quick turnaround on the pitch, but is he the type of coach who would appeal to Messi? Current Paraguay national team coach and former Galaxy boss Guillermo Barros Schelotto, a Messi family friend, set a unique set of parameters that an MLS side would have to meet in order to lure the Argentine to the league. 

“(In MLS) I’d expect him to play for one of the teams in Los Angeles, Miami or on a team with an Argentine influence — someone who can work closely with him, whether that’s a coach or an executive,” Barros Schelotto told The Athletic last summer, before Messi signed with PSG.

Neville’s contract expires at the end of this year, but Inter Miami is expected to re-sign the former Manchester United, Everton and England defender. From a squad construction perspective, Inter Miami has the available designated player spots to add Messi. Thanks to Gonzalo Higuain’s recent retirement, Miami could add Messi and still have an available DP spot to add another star signing. Currently, Miami’s other DP is midfielder Alejandro Pozuelo.

So does Messi make Miami instant MLS Cup favorites? 

Vegas will likely say so, but the realistic answer is no. 

Those sanctions against Inter Miami extend into 2023, leaving the club hamstrung to retool the squad in certain ways. That, more than anything else, will likely keep them from being MLS Cup favorites until 2024 at soonest. Miami finished sixth in the Eastern Conference in 2022, good for 11th in the broader MLS table.

“But it’s Messi!” some will say. However, history has shown that one individual alone can’t conquer MLS like an NBA superstar might.

Take Beckham as an example. He joined the Galaxy at a time when an MLS team’s best path to contention was to build through the American college soccer system. He had a worthy attacking ace in Landon Donovan at the height of his powers — and he still didn’t win MLS Cup until his fifth season with the team. Thierry Henry joined a perennial contender in the New York Red Bulls and didn’t even make it to the MLS Cup final. Zlatan Ibrahimovic was irresistibly prolific in front of goal during his two seasons with the Galaxy, but MLS remains the only league in which he’s played without winning a major trophy. 

The best comparison to Messi joining Miami in the summer window would be one from the most recent regular season. Toronto FC made Lorenzo Insigne the highest-paid player in league history when he left Napoli to collect $14 million per season. The Euro 2020-winning winger was joined by Italy teammate Federico Bernardeschi and former international left back Domenico Criscito… but after starting the season so poorly before the Italian cavalry arrived, Bob Bradley’s side finished as the league’s second-worst in 2022. 

Like Insigne and Bernardeschi found in Toronto, being a high-level MLS attacker doesn’t fix most teams’ fatal flaws. The league is known for a poorer standard of defending than the quality of midfield and attacking play. Miami allowed 56 goals this year — tied for the most among postseason qualifiers and a total eclipsed by only five teams league-wide. You don’t need a Wyscout subscription to know that Messi isn’t going to help with pressing from the front, and if anything, his presence will put even more pressure on the teammates behind him to fortify in the middle and defensive thirds. He will likely score a lot of goals in MLS, even at age 36, as he currently has 12 in 17 appearances across all competitions with PSG, but Miami will likely be conceding a lot of goals, too.  

Simply having the best player in the league isn’t a guarantee of success on the pitch. In fact, only two of the last 14 MVP winners played for the eventual MLS Cup winner (Robbie Keane of the LA Galaxy in 2014, Josef Martínez of Atlanta United in 2018). Messi will instantly make Miami appointment viewing, fill the club and league’s coffers and influence a new generation of American fans and players, but don’t think that his presence alone will turn Miami into an MLS Cup winner.

Sam Stejskal, Pablo Maurer, Jeff Rueter, Felipe Cardenas and Brooks Peck contributed to this piece. 

(Photo Aurelien Meunier – PSG/PSG via Getty Images)