Bet the Under in Saturday’s MAC Matchup
Miami (OH) vs. Bowling Green Odds
Saturday afternoon MACtion continues, as the Miami (OH) RedHawks take a short ride to Bowling Green to take on the Falcons in an East division matchup.
Miami (OH) enters this game with a 3-3 record and is coming off of a home win over Kent State. For the season, the RedHawks are 3-3 against the spread and have gone under in five of six games.
Bowling Green enters this game with a 2-4 record, and it’s coming into this game following a home loss to Buffalo. The Falcons are 1-4-1 against the spread and they’ve gone over in five of six games.
It will be a windy afternoon at Doyt L. Perry Stadium. There will be winds ranging from 12.3 to 14.0 miles per hour and temperatures will be in the mid-50s.
After a rough first couple of seasons as head coach, Chuck Martin has consistently kept the RedHawks as a mid-range MAC program with aspirations of making a bowl game.
Their 3-3 start and 1-1 conference record likely indicates that they won’t be making a big jump forward, but they should be on track for a bowl game once again.
Miami (OH) is averaging 20.8 points per game and 5.1 yards per play. The RedHawks have a 37% Success Rate and have averaged 3.05 points per opportunity. Their 30.5 seconds per play is among the slowest in the country.
Miami (OH) slightly favors the running game, with a passing rate of just 44%. Brett Gabbert has been unavailable since Week 1 and Aveon Smith has struggled in his job replacing Gabbert.
Smith is completing 52.4% of his passes for an average of 6.1 yards per attempt. He’s thrown six touchdowns and four interceptions.
As a team, the RedHawks have a 36% Passing Success Rate and they’ve completed an average of 1.67 20+ yard passes per game.
As a team, Miami (OH) is averaging 40.3 rushing attempts per game for an average of 4.5 yards per carry.
Keyon Mozee has led the team with 77 attempts for 353 yards and one touchdown. Smith is second on the team with 259 yards and three touchdowns on 49 attempts.
As a team, they have a 37% Rushing Success Rate. Their offensive line has generated 2.96 Line Yards per attempt and a 22.2% Stuff Rate.
Miami (OH)’s defense has kept it in games, with particular success against the run. The RedHawks allowed a 38% Success Rate with a 32% Success Rate against the run, which ranks fourth in the country.
They allow just 3.75 points per opportunity, and much of their success getting off of the field can be attributed to their 30% Havoc rate, which ranks second nationally.
They’ve allowed just 25.2 points per game and 5.2 yards per play.
Under Scot Loeffler, Bowling Green has consistently hovered at the bottom of the MAC standings. With a 2-4 record, it doesn’t appear that this year will be dramatically different.
Bowling Green is averaging 26.7 points per game and 4.9 yards per play. The Falcons have a 38% Success Rate and average just 2.97 points per opportunity. They average 25 seconds per play, which ranks as a top-30 pace.
Bowling Green’s offense passes the ball on 56% of plays. The Falcons average 37.2 pass attempts per game.
Quarterback Matt McDonald is completing 55.8% of his passes for an average of 6.4 yards per attempt. He’s thrown 14 touchdowns to just two interceptions.
The Falcons have shown an ability to be explosive, with an average of 4.5 20+ yard passes per game. But they lack some consistency, with a 39% Passing Success Rate.
The Falcons average 31.8 rush attempts per game for an average of 3.2 yards per carry. They have distributed their rush attempts well — with four players over 20 carries — but their leading back has just 191 yards for the year.
As a team, the Falcons have a 39% Rushing Success Rate. Their offensive line is generating 3.14 Line Yards per attempt and has allowed a 16.4% Stuff Rate.
In stark contrast to Miami (OH), Bowling Green’s defense has been its primary issue — it has allowed 41 points per game and 6.4 yards per play.
While the Falcons are generating Havoc on 22% of plays, they have allowed a 47% Success Rate and 5.14 points per opportunity. Their 492.3 yards allowed per game ranks fourth-worst nationally.
Miami (OH) vs. Bowling Green Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Miami (OH) and Bowling Green match up statistically:
Miami (OH) Offense vs. Bowling Green Defense
Bowling Green Offense vs. Miami (OH) Defense
Pace of Play / Other
| PFF Tackling | 61 | 119 |
| PFF Coverage | 102 | 67 |
| SP+ Special Teams | 72 | 95 |
| Seconds per Play | 30.5 (126) | 25.0 (35) |
| Rush Rate | 63.5% (12) | 46.1% (107) |
Data via CollegeFootballData.com (CFBD), FootballOutsiders, SP+, Pro Football Focus and SportSource Analytics.
Miami (OH) vs. Bowling Green Betting Pick
When it comes to the spread, Miami (OH) is a very public team.
As of this writing, 73% of the bets are on the RedHawks, but 67% of the money is coming in on the underdog.
I’d lean towards Miami (OH), but laying nearly a touchdown with a team where points may be at a premium isn’t ideal.
It’s likely a good thing that Bowling Green prefers to pass the ball because it should be expected that the Falcons will struggle to run against this Miami (OH) defense.
But the winds may impact the Falcons’ ability to pass.
It’s a combination of the struggling Miami (OH) offense, a strong Miami (OH) defense and the weather conditions that help my decision to bet on the under.
