Burrow Hands Fins’ First Loss Thursday Night

The Miami Dolphins and their early success wave become one of the hottest headlines through the first three weeks of the young season. Boasting a 3-0 record heading into tonight’s Thursday Night battle, the Dolphins have not only toppled the Super Bowl favorites in this run but have also managed to go a perfect 3-0 against the spread.

Where last week’s stunning victory over Buffalo silenced a lot of naysayers, the NFL odds suggest that sportsbooks are not completely sold on this early hype, as they have opted to line the 1-2 Cincinnati Bengals as 4-point home favorites for tonight’s primetime battle. Opening NFL odds had offered the Bengals at -3.5 before climbing as high as -5.5 at some shops.

The betting total for the showdown has been driven up from its opening and currently sits at 48.5, with the majority wagers backing the over. This goes directly against historic Thursday night trends, and both Miami and Cincinnati have historically been profitable for under backers. The Bengals have cashed eight straight under tickets, whereas the Dolphins have fallen under the total in nine of their last thirteen matchups.

Dolphins vs. Bengals Betting Odds Via BetOnline

Dolphins vs Bengals Moneyline

• Dolphins +162
• Bengals -182

Dolphins vs Bengals Spread

Dolphins vs Bengals Total

Thursday morning newswires all hint that Miami quarterback Tua Tagavailoa is expected to play tonight, despite reported back and ankle injuries that had him listed as questionable earlier in the week.

The Dolphins quarterback was clearly shaken after suffering a head injury in last weekend’s victory. Many questioned the decision to have Tua return to play and finish out the game, and while it has been confirmed that the team did in fact follow the league’s concussion protocol, concerns linger as to his ability to operate at 100% on a short week.

Teddy Bridgewater will get the nod, should Tagavailoa find himself sidelined. Bridgewater went 7-7 last season with the Broncos, with his last NFL start coming in a 15-10 loss to this same Bengals team.

While the team remains hopeful for their quarterback’s availability, seven other players remain ‘questionable’ for the game. The potential loss of both LT Terron Armstead and GR Borert Hunt could see increased pressure on an already limited QB. Tua’s offensive options would also be limited, as receivers Jaylen Waddle and Cedric Wilson Jr. are also listed as questionable.

The Bengals’ defense has been particularly weak against tight ends, and the Dolphins would be smart to call Durham Smythe’s and Mike Gesicki’s numbers throughout the game to help establish an offensive rhythm.

Cincinnati comes to this matchup relatively healthy, and Joe Burrow will be eager to reignite his fire against a Dolphins defense that is surrendering 413.7 ypg. Considering that Miami’s D only brings pressure 13.3% of the time, and has given up the second most passing yards this season (931), expect the Bengals to take to the air. This also gives their revamped O-line a chance to better sync as a unit, something they struggled with early this season.

Oddsmakers sometimes purposely lean into the storyline a bit more than they should, but the current line shows just how confident they are in the current Miami hype. Cincinnati has a number of playmakers looking to have their first breakout performance of the season, and what better place than under the Thursday night spotlights against one of the most talked about teams in the league?

We are backing the Bengals -4 tonight to make easy work of the Dolphins with or without Tua. Given the current injury status of Miami, I’d also suggest looking at Tyreek Hill to score props, as he might be the Fins’ best option to keep things close should Burrow find his stride early.