How high could Miami’s recruiting class soar in rankings?: Hurricanes mailbag

It’s no secret Mario Cristobal and the Miami Hurricanes have been red-hot on the recruiting trail since the middle of June.

They hit on an elite quarterback, a local four-star receiver, a top in-state cornerback, three tight ends including the second-best at the position, one of the best linebackers in the country, the top offensive tackle in the country and a defensive end who was a five-star when he committed.

And it is clear the Hurricanes — who boast the eighth-best class in the 247Sports Composite with 14 commitments — aren’t done yet. More pledges are expected.

With recruiting and realignment talk dominating the off-season conversation, we’ve almost forgotten the season is right around the corner. Camp will start at the beginning of August. But before that, Cristobal, quarterback Tyler Van Dyke, edge rusher Jahfari Harvey and tight end Will Mallory will be at the ACC’s media day events next Wednesday and Thursday in Charlotte representing the Hurricanes.

Things are heating up and you had questions in our July mailbag. We tackled some and saved a few for another mailbag next week while I’m on vacation.

(Note: Submitted questions have been lightly edited for length and clarity.)

Is portal season over, or will Mario have a chance to add another linebacker or receiver before fall? If not, how should fans be feeling about those positions? — Mike J.

Portal season is never over. Neither is tampering season. Those are open 24/7, 365 days a year. But there was a May 1 deadline for one-time transfers to receive immediate eligibility for the upcoming 2022 season, and the only way around it at this point is an NCAA-approved waiver.

When Miami added Lackawanna JUCO receiver Colbie Young to the roster in June, it essentially closed the door on the team’s immediate need for a receiver and put the Canes at nine scholarship receivers, counting the loss of 2021 three-star signee Dazalin Worsham (Auburn) in the transfer portal.

At linebacker, Miami picked up UCLA graduate transfer Caleb Johnson and it helped make up for the losses of Sam Brooks Jr., Deshawn Troutman and Tirek Austin-Cave. The depth chart stands at nine there as well.

Ideally there would be a little more depth at both. But nine should be enough to get through the season. Johnson should be a starter alongside Keontra Smith. Young should be in the rotation and most likely used for jump balls around the end zone.

How should fans feel overall about those positions? We know they’re the least proven spots on offense and defense entering the season. But that doesn’t mean they can’t be good with some better coaching.

What recruiting class ranking do you predict Miami will sign in 2023? Where do we stand with target recruits that haven’t committed yet? — Jason L.

Who do you think we close with over next 30-45 days? Will we sign a huge defensive tackle? Thoughts on starting offensive line. — Sean D.

I get it. We’re excited about recruiting and we want to know how good this 2023 signing class will be when non-binding verbal commitments turn into signatures come December and February.

Let’s start here: There’s a lot of confidence in Coral Gables. Miami is great position to land commitments from five-star offensive tackle Samson Okunlola (No. 20 overall in 247Sports Composite), four-star offensive tackle Olaus Alinen (No. 123) of Windsor (Conn.) Loomis Chaffee, four-star safety Jayden Bonsu (No. 256) out of Hillside (NJ) St. Peters Prep, and four-star linebacker Malik Bryant (No. 49) out of Orlando (Fla.) Jones.

If Miami were to land all four and hold onto its other 14 commitments, the class point total would surge to 281.31. The Hurricanes’ highest-rated class in the past decade — the 2018 group with tight end Brevin Jordan and first-round pick Gregory Rousseau — scored 275.62 points and featured 23 commitments. This class with those four additions would not only eclipse that group and land Miami inside the top 10 nationally, but it also could land the Canes inside the top five if a few others jump on board (like four-star defensive lineman Rueben Bain, five-star safety Joenel Aguero or five-star cornerback Cormani McClain).

Andrew Ferrelli of the South Florida Express joined me this week and we made some recruiting predictions on the Wide Right podcast earlier this week.

As for landing a big defensive tackle, I’d put David Hicks, the 6-foot-4, 270-pound five-star from Katy, Tex. in that category if Cristobal can pull it off. I think odds are Miami ends up with at least one big man whether it is Hicks, four-star defensive lineman Jordan Hall of Jacksonville (Fla.) Westside or another big-bodied run stuffer who pops into the transfer portal down the line.

How bitter a pill is it to swallow that — despite recruiting going so well — there are two five-star receivers from Miami going elsewhere for college? — Dana B.

It’s honestly not that tough, considering how deep the talent at receiver is this year locally and the fact the Hurricanes are contenders for local four-stars Hykeem Williams (Fort Lauderdale Stranahan), Andy Jean (Miami Northwestern) and William Fowles (Dade Christian) and have commitments from local four-stars Nathaniel Joseph (Miami Edison) and Robby Washington (Miami Palmetto).

The Canes would have obviously loved to land pledges from Brandon Inniss (Ohio State) and Jalen Brown (LSU), but I can’t blame either player for wanting to head off to college and experience something new when that’s what both wanted from the get-go. Plus, there’s an entire season left to be played and five months until anyone signs a national letter of intent.

Jayden Wayne was a five-star️ recruit leading up to and at the time of his announcement to commit to Miami. Days later he hasn’t played a down and is now showing up as a four-star️. What gives? — Larry M.

We touched on this — and why it seems many Miami recruits slip in the rankings after they commit to the Hurricanes — in the Wide Right podcast. But here’s what else I’ll share from what I know. There was nothing nefarious on the part of the Miami beat writers and recruiting writers working at 247 when Wayne’s composite ranking slipped about an hour after his pledge to the Hurricanes.

As it was explained to me by a staffer, it was a technical glitch. Since the 247Composite rankings are based on a mathematical formula which averages out the rankings of the major recruiting services, and the info is pulled from other websites. All that happened was an editor updated where Wayne is going to school (he transferred to Bradenton IMG Academy), and hit the refresh button on Wayne’s page. That pulled in the numbers and it changed where Wayne’s average ranking stood.

At last check, Rivals had Wayne 13th, 247 had him 36th, ESPN had him 74th and On3 had him ranked 93rd overall. That’s an average ranking of 54th if you divide the four services equally. But the 247Sports Composite — with its own formula — has Wayne ranked 41st and just outside a five-star ranking.

How many wins do you think the Canes need to keep this current recruiting class together and push for a top-five class in 2024? — Mike J.

How common is it for recruits to decommit between now and signing day? Is it reasonable to expect at least some attrition? — Colin H.

I think it’s always fair to expect some attrition in every recruiting class following summer commitments. Between coaching changes, successful or unsuccessful seasons, and other elite programs continuing to pursue committed players, pledges are meaningless until national letters of intent are signed.

Decommitments happen to even the best programs.

Texas A&M, which signed the No. 1 recruiting class last cycle, lost five-star linebacker Harold Perkins, a Texan, to LSU in late January last year. Miami took four-star All-American tight end Jaleel Skinner away from Alabama two days after the early signing period began. Georgia lost two in-state four-star commitments on the first day of the early signing period.

Miami’s coaching staff is very good, and Cristobal’s 10-year contract makes the Hurricanes a steady, attractive team to come play for. But who is to say offensive coordinator Josh Gattis or defensive backs coach Jahmile Addae aren’t lured away to bigger or better jobs by December or January. It’s all fluid and no team ever seem to get to Signing Day unscathed by changes.

As a position coach for four-star linebacker commitment Raul Aguirre told me this week, “Miami is definitely going to have to keep recruiting (Aguirre) and win on the field to hold onto him.”

How many wins will it take to keep the entire class intact and momentum for the 2024 class? There really is no magic number. It’s more of a series of questions that are answered in a good way by the end of season.

Is Miami getting better under Cristobal? Are players developing and going to the NFL draft? Do the Hurricanes look like they’ll be a national title contender with the additions of these recruits or transfers. If the answer is yes to all of those, then most of those guys should stick.

What do you believe is going to happen to the Miami Hurricanes in conference realignment? How strong is the ACC’s grant of rights? Will the ACC survive as it is? — Adam B.

Days before our Andy Staples got his hands on the ACC’s grant of rights and wrote a terrific piece on it, an ACC administrator described it to me as an “air tight” agreement through 2036 that would be awfully hard to defeat in court. It also would cost hundreds of millions to get out of.

The key to everything with future realignment is what happens with Notre Dame. The Irish aren’t a football member of the ACC, but play five games against conference teams every year. They were also part of the contract ACC schools signed in 2016 when the grant of rights was amended. If Notre Dame were to leave for the Big Ten, every ACC school who wants out could go to court and argue the deal they agreed to in 2016 is no longer valid because the Irish are no longer part of the equation.

Would they win and still not pay a hefty exit fee? That’s hard to say.

Ultimately, ESPN and Fox control the future. ESPN owns the TV rights for the SEC and ACC, and has no motivation to sweeten the pot for Clemson, Miami, North Carolina or anybody else in the ACC unless the Big Ten (whose broadcasts are owned by Fox) try to sway them to leave. Sure, the Big 12 and the Pac-12 have business to take care of, and we probably will see something happen in the next year or two involving some Pac-12 schools. But the ACC feels far removed from any immediate changes.

Are ACC schools going to get more and more antsy as the gap in revenue from TV deals expands from around $10 to $20 million now to potentially $50 to $60 million by the end of the decade? Absolutely. But other dominoes have to fall first in my mind before Miami begins having conversations about spending $300 million-plus to get its media rights back from the ACC. So, I think the ACC stays intact as is until Notre Dame bolts.

How imperative do you think it is for Miami — if the TV deal is ever broken — to get into one of the super conferences in the next round of realignment? I imagine Mario and company would want to be there from the recruiting standpoint alone. — Dana B.

Nobody wants to get left out or be viewed as second-tier. But I don’t get the sense recruits are basing any decisions yet on the Big Ten and SEC being bigger and better conferences from a TV-revenue perspective. In fact, I’d say as long as Miami continues to be a name, image and likeness destination for recruits, they could stay in the ACC and continue to get great players to come play for Mario Cristobal as long as they’re churning out NFL players at a higher rate in the years to come.

But there’s no doubt no one in Miami’s administration is going to stand for receiving a lot less money from the ACC than whatever it is Rutgers and Vanderbilt earn from the Big Ten and SEC in years to come. Eventually, a push to enter a super conference, or a change in the ACC’s revenue, has to change.

Based on your years around the program: Favorite, least favorite, overrated, underrated ACC college towns? — Lee D.

I love vacationing in cabins out in the wilderness, but I’m a city guy at heart.

So, Atlanta is my favorite ACC town (isn’t it more of an SEC town?). Between the easy flight, College Football Hall of Fame, great restaurants and the cute, little football field within walking distance of my hotel in downtown, that’s a great weekend trip to watch a football game for me.

Least favorite? I can’t say I really dislike any ACC trip. I’ve yet to go to any game (football or basketball) at Syracuse. So I can’t include the Orange. If I had a complaint about any ACC town, it would just be they all aren’t as easy to go to as Atlanta, Boston and Pittsburgh.

Overrated? That’s tough. Outside of Clemson football or Florida State football, or Duke or North Carolina basketball, I’m not sure who in the ACC even has some level of high expectations for hosting a sporting event. Every one of these towns has a great place to eat before and after the game. They’re all great places to visit for a weekend.

(Photo: Mark Brown / Getty)