Miami Marlins at Washington Nationals odds, picks and predictions

The Miami Marlins (34-40) and Washington Nationals (29-49) swing into a 4-game set at Nationals Park starting Friday. The opener is slated for a 6:05 p.m. ET first pitch. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Marlins vs. Nationals odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Season series: Miami leads 8-1

The Marlins swept the Nationals the last time these 2 clubs met, June 7-9 in Miami. The Fish outscored the Nats 21-7 over the 3 games, which included a 12-2 rout and a 2-1, 10-inning final. Miami is coming off losing 2 of 3 at St. Louis. They Marlins are just 3-8 over their last 11 road tilts.

The Nationals continue a homestand that opened with 2 wins in 3 games against Pittsburgh. The Nats are 3-1 across their last 4 games.

Marlins at Nationals projected starters

LHP Trevor Rogers vs. RHP Josiah Gray

Rogers (3-6, 5.86 ERA) owns a 1.63 WHIP, 4.4 BB/9 and 8.3 K/9 through 63 IP over 14 starts.

Walks are up and strikeouts are down from 2021 when the then-23-year-old logged a 2.64 ERA
Owns a 6.92 ERA (13 IP, 10 ER) and 2.00 WHIP across last 3 starts

Gray (6-4, 3.82 ERA) has clocked a 1.21 WHIP, 3.9 BB/9 and 9.8 K/9 through 75 1/3 IP through 14 starts.

Current Miami batters own an aggregate .828 OPS against him
Has allowed just 2 runs over his last 25 2/3 innings

Marlins at Nationals odds and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Thursday at 10:29 p.m. ET.

Money line: Marlins +105 (bet $100 to win $105) | Nationals -130 (bet $130 to win $100)
Run line (RL): Marlins +1.5 (-190) | Nationals -1.5 (+155)
Over/Under (O/U): 9.5 (O: -102 | U: -122)

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Marlins at Nationals picks and predictions

Prediction

Marlins 6, Nationals 5

Money line

Miami sports a better offense against right-handed pitchers, and it gets a platoon boost despite batting more righties. That right lean plays into an advantage against Washington’s bullpen, which has scuffled against that side.

While the Marlins are 12-17 in 1-run games, there is VALUE IN A MIAMI (+105) PLAY.

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Run line/Against the spread

Getting a run and a half with Miami +1.5 (-190) is tempting, but that option is washed away by the -190 juice. PASS.

Over/Under

Just a slight lean on the OVER 9.5 (-102) here.

Gray’s numbers have been buoyed by a .236 batting average on balls in play. A warm evening, an outward breeze in the forecast and a couple flyball starters play into the lean.

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