Boston Celtics vs. Miami Heat conference finals a ‘great series,’ even in TikTok era
MIAMI — Here are 25 thoughts for Jaylen Brown’s Eastern Conference finals-leading 25 points per game scoring average, in a series that could go either way.
1. In a 2-2 series, both teams are officially in danger. If you disagree in this case and believe either the Heat or the Celtics are clearly in the driver’s seat to get to the NBA Finals, ask yourself this: Has either team played well yet in a game and lost?
2. The answer, of course, is no. Only once in four games has the final score been even remotely close — and in that game, the losing team (Boston) trailed by as many as 26 points and committed 23 turnovers at home. In a series like this, where the teams are so similar, someone is going to play well and lose.
3. This means one more shooting slump, one more injury, one more case of the turnovers, and it’s curtains.
4. “The scores and that kind of thing doesn’t really give the true indication of how competitive (the series) is,” Heat coach Erik Spoelstra said.
5. In the TikTok era, I get why you’re bored with this series. There has only been one truly compelling fourth quarter. But I also agree with Spoelstra that this is an intriguing conference finals where, four games in, we have no idea who is going to win. He called it a “great series.”
6. I don’t know if I’d quite go that far just yet, but I do know the idea floating around out there that the Celtics have dominated all but two quarters against the Heat is one of the dumbest narratives I’ve heard. Quarter breaks are for TV. There is no extra value to scoring more points than your opponent in any single 12-minute period. Just make sure, at game’s end, you have more points than the other side. Miami has done that twice, flexing impressive muscle both times.
7. Twice in this series the Celtics were able to start Robert Williams III and Al Horford. And Boston won those two games by a combined 45 points. Miami tends to struggle against bigger teams. Williams and Horford aren’t just two capable bigs; they’re versatile. They take Bam Adebayo out of his best role in the middle of Miami’s defense as the surprise factor. He can’t be as active on the perimeter and can’t help as much on Jayson Tatum. They also essentially close off the lane from Miami’s scorers, particularly Adebayo — who dominated Game 3 (31 points on 22 shots) with Williams out but managed just five shots in Game 4. Our Jared Weiss took a long look at this phenomenon. The Heat’s starting five has no weaknesses on defense — there isn’t any single player who has to “hide” — but Miami overwhelms its opponents by being able to throw multiple excellent defenders at top scorers, betting they can rotate to the open shooter when needed and otherwise taking the chance to leave weaker offensive players open. The Heat can’t quite do that against a healthy Celtics group. So you could say that, so long as Horford and Williams are in the lineup moving forward, Boston has a huge edge.
8. Except Williams is playing on a surgically repaired knee that is going to swell from time to time. It knocked him out of four games in the last round and one already in this series. Here is everything Williams said about his knee after Game 4:
9. “The knee felt great, feels good. Obviously (I’ll) just take a look at it tomorrow and see how it’s feeling, recovery-wise. … It’s just swelling a little bit, stiffening up on me a little. (I’m) taking it day by day, spending a lot of time with the trainers, obviously, throwing a lot of scenarios at it, (seeing) how it responds. … We usually just wait until the next day to see if it’s swelling or anything. … Coming out of this game, (there are) no doubts in my head. I feel good for it. … Once you have an injury, it’s rare that you feel no pain. It’s just reading if I’m limited to doing certain things. I don’t want to have a lot of limitations when I’m out there.”
10. It’s no sure thing he’ll play in all three remaining games of this series, if it gets that far.
11. Marcus Smart’s sprained lower appendages (foot, ankle) bother me too, and I thought him missing Game 4 could be a death knell for the Celtics. They lost Game 1 without him. Both Smart and Williams are “questionable” for Wednesday’s game. I didn’t quite see Derrick White being way too quick for Kyle Lowry or turning in a Smart-like 13 points, eight rebounds and six assists. White was not good in Game 1, with Smart out, but perhaps he had something more important on his mind. His son Hendrix was born soon after, and he missed Game 2 to be there for the birth. He gave Boston exactly what it needed in Game 4. Our Jay King had much more on White Tuesday morning.
12. Who has been the best player for the Celtics so far in this series? Before you say Tatum, know that Brown, not Tatum, is Boston’s leading scorer (100 points for Brown; 97 for Tatum). Tatum is throwing rocks up there from 3-point range (he’s 8-of-29) and has committed 19 turnovers. All of that makes his 31 points in Game 4, on 14-of-16 shooting from the foul line, more concerning for the Heat. The series is tied, and Tatum hasn’t been too comfortable yet.
13. Tatum’s two most efficient games in this series, by far, were the games in which Williams and Horford were out there too. Adebayo (and P.J. Tucker) can’t be as disruptive as usual when their services are required in the post.
14. I wrote for Tuesday morning all about the intrigue surrounding the Heat’s injuries and how Jimmy Butler refused to use his ailing right knee as an excuse for the stinker he turned in Monday night. In his past two games, he’s 6-of-17 shooting for 14 points, after scoring 40 in the first two games of this series. No matter the reason for Butler’s recent struggles, if he doesn’t get them corrected, the Heat will not be advancing.
15. “We settled for too many midrange jump shots, myself included,” Butler said. “A lot of shots behind the 3 that weren’t even good ones, at that. We need to move the ball around, get it to the open guy and let that guy make the play and live with what we get out of it.”
16. After the previous blowout loss in Game 2, Butler blamed himself for being too selfish with the ball. The Heat responded by feeding Adebayo, and then Butler missed the second half with his knee issue anyway. When Boston has Williams and Horford and they’re clogging up the paint, Butler has to be able to win his one-on-one matchup. Being healthier would help. But he’s also just not much of a 3-point shooter. He attempted just two shots from deep on Monday (missed both), so much of the carnage from his 3-of-14 performance came from him just not being able to create comfortable, makable looks for himself closer to the rim.
17. How much do you trust Max Strus and Gabe Vincent? They have been one of the main stories of the Heat’s postseason run, two relatively unknown players thrust into the pressure of starting in the playoffs for a team with finals aspirations. Vincent propped up the Heat with his gritty defense and timely shooting while Kyle Lowry was out, and Strus is Miami’s top 3-point shooter (percentage-wise). He helped Butler close out the Sixers in the last round with consecutive double-doubles — the first two of his NBA career. And when the Heat desperately needed a basket at the end of Game 3 to hold on, Strus delivered.
18. Vincent and Strus were both bad in Game 4. Vincent was back on the bench in a reserve role because Lowry started, and he shot just 2 of 10. Strus was 0-of-7 and missed all four 3s. If the Celtics are packing the paint and Butler can’t get his shot, Miami’s literal last hope is to bomb away from 3. Victor Oladipo and Duncan Robinson combined for eight 3s in Game 4, and this is not to suggest that either should be playing now instead of Strus — but if all else is equal from Game 4, the onus is on Strus to give the starting group a lift.
19. It’s hard to know what to make of Lowry’s first two games. He looked better to me in Game 3, matched up against Smart. Both players are thick, gritty, seasoned vets who happen to not be moving as well as usual due to injury. Lowry was able to push the tempo on offense in Game 3, score when needed (11 points, four assists) and otherwise hold his own. White is much taller and quicker than Lowry, and the 36-year-old former champion shot just 1-of-6. I’ve argued during these playoffs that the Heat are better off with a healthy Vincent starting (and Oladipo running the second unit) than with Lowry trying to play at (way) less than 100 percent. Though that’s technically still true, unless Lowry suffers a relapse of the hamstring strain, there is simply no way Spoelstra could (or would) go away from him now. The Heat should get Tyler Herro back for Game 5, and he can help with literally all of these issues. His return will also put Spoelstra again in the position of taking playing time away from someone who probably deserves it. Oladipo was his best player in Game 4, but he could be the odd man out.
20. The Celtics have taken 68 foul shots in the past two games. Miami has attempted 28. To their credit, the Heat are not complaining about the discrepancy. Otherwise, though, they’re a team that prides itself on the edge it carries, on its collective toughness. Let’s see it.
21. “When you shoot a lot of jump shots, which we tended to do tonight, it’s hard getting to the free-throw line,” Butler said. “I think we have to be more of a forceful-type team, getting into the paint, not shying away from contact and playing from the inside out. Whenever we do that and (don’t) shoot as many jumpers, we might get fouled a little bit.”
22. LOL time. ESPN and TNT both sent out press releases, doing collective backflips over ratings increases on both networks for the conference finals — touting the 2022 East and West finals as the most-watched series since 2018. Great news, I guess. But there is, ahem, a little context missing in the celebration.
23. The 2021 playoffs didn’t start until June. People watch (much) less television in July, especially if a sporting event that typically is over by June 19 is still on. In 2020 in the bubble, games continued into August and September and players protested racial and social injustices daily — which likely turned off portions of the NBA audience that want sports to be apolitical. And in 2019, the Toronto Raptors were in the Eastern finals (and NBA Finals). Canadian viewership does not count toward American TV ratings. So you could argue these are the first “normal” conference finals since 2018, when ratings superstars LeBron James and Steph Curry were headlining the East and West finals, respectively.
24. I just had to get that one off my chest. Let’s refocus. The East finals are tight. Very tight. Could go either way. The Williams-Horford pairing makes me think the Celtics have an edge, until I remember how fleeting the health of Williams’ knee is. Don’t be fooled by Boston’s Game 4 dominance.
25. “Whatever they have done to us, we can do to them,” Spoelstra said.
(Photo: Brian Babineau / NBAE via Getty Images)
