Miami Heat at Toronto Raptors odds, picks and predictions

April 3, 2022 Admin

The Miami Heat (50-28) visit the Scotiabank Arena Sunday to play the Toronto Raptors (45-32) at 7 p.m. ET. Below, we look at the Heat vs. Raptors odds and lines, and make our expert NBA picks, predictions and bets.

Miami clobbered the Bulls in Chicago Saturday 127-109 for its third consecutive victory, which followed a 4-game losing skid. The Heat are 3-4 against the spread (ATS) in that span.

Toronto has played its way into fifth place in the Eastern Conference, a half-game in front of the Bulls with 5 games remaining. The Raptors are on a 5-game winning streak (5-0 ATS) with the latest being a 102-89 win Friday over the Magic in Orlando.

The Raptors are 2-1 straight up (SU) and ATS versus the Heat, which includes back-to-back wins in their head-to-head series. The total is 2-1 Over/Under (O/U).

Heat at Raptors odds, spread and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 1:18 p.m. ET.

Money line (ML): Heat +135 (bet $100 to win $135) | Raptors -170 (bet $170 to win $100)
Against the spread: Heat +3.5 (-108) | Raptors -3.5 (-112)
Over/Under: 212.5 (O: -115 | U: -107)

Heat at Raptors key injuries

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Raptors

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Heat at Raptors odds, lines, picks and predictions

Prediction

Raptors 111, Heat 102

Money line

PASS with a heavy “lean” toward the Raptors (-170) since they have a major strength-on-weakness edge over the Heat (+135) in ball security.

For instance, the Raptors have the highest defensive turnover rate (TOV%) and the Heat has the fourth-worst offensive TOV%, according to CleaningTheGlass.com (CTG).

Furthermore, Toronto scores the second-most points off of turnovers per game and Miami is 20th in points off of turnovers allowed per game.

That said, the Raptors (-170) are a little out of my price range for this spot so I’ll lay the points with Toronto instead.

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Against the spread

BET the RAPTORS -3.5 (-112) for 1 unit because of their aforementioned edge in ball security over the Heat +3.5 (-108) and this is a Pros vs. Joe’s scenario in the betting market, with the presumed sharp money on Toronto.

According to Pregame.com, a slight majority of the cash is on the Raptors but nearly three-fourths of the bets placed are on the Heat. Since wiseguys wager more money than the public, typically the cash column of the betting splits is considered the sharp side of the market.

Also, this is a better spot for Toronto than Miami. The Raptors have a slightly higher ATS winning percentage versus teams with a winning record while the Heat are 5-7-1 ATS as 3-to-4.5-point underdogs and struggle in the second of back-to-backs.

Miami is 1-6 ATS in the last 7 games played with no rest and has a minus-3.6 adjusted net rating (ranked 20th) and minus-2.4 ATS margin (ranked 24th) in the second of a back-to-back this season, per CTG.

TAKE the RAPTORS -3.5 (-112) unless Toronto’s ML goes south of -150 at which point I’d bet the Raptors SU.

Over/Under

PASS because my numbers align with the market’s projected score so there’s no value for me in this total.

For what it’s worth, Toronto is 38-39 O/U and 11-9 O/U when playing with a rest advantage while Miami is 44-32-1 O/U and 9-4 O/U on zero rest days so I “lean” Over 212.5 (-115).

But, a vast majority of the action is on the Over and this total hasn’t budged off the opener so this might be a trap line for Over backers.

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