Iowa State vs. Miami odds, picks and predictions
The 11th-seeded Iowa State Cyclones (22-12) play the No. 10 seed Miami Hurricanes (25-10) Friday in the Sweet 16 of the East Region. Tip-off at United Center in Chicago is scheduled for 9:59 p.m. ET (TBS). Below, we look at the Iowa State vs. Miami odds and lines, and make our expert college basketball picks, predictions and bets.
Both teams are Cinderella stories with Iowa State upsetting the sixth-seeded LSU Tigers 59-54 in the opening round then beating the No. 3 seed Wisconsin Badgers 54-49 in the second round. The Cyclones are 13-6 against the spread (ATS) as underdogs and 4-1 ATS in neutral-site games.
Miami beat the No. 7 seed USC Trojans in a first-round 68-66 nail-biter before hammering the second-seeded Auburn Tigers 79-61 in the Round of 32. The Hurricanes are 8-13 ATS as favorites and 4-4 ATS in neutral-site games.
Rankings courtesy of the Ferris Mowers Coaches Poll powered by USA TODAY Sports.
Iowa State vs. Miami odds, spread and lines
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 12:50 a.m. ET.
Money line: Iowa State +120 (bet $100 to win $120) | Miami -145 (bet $145 to win $100)
Against the spread (ATS): Iowa State +2.5 (-110) | Miami -2.5 (-110)
Over/Under (O/U): 133.5 (O: -107 | U: -115)
Iowa State vs. Miami odds, lines, picks and predictions
Prediction
Iowa State 66, Miami 62
Money line
SPRINKLE on IOWA STATE (+120) only because the Cyclones plus the points is the much sharper wager and their defense should give Miami fits.
Iowa State has the second-best adjusted defensive efficiency out of the 16 remaining NCAA Tournament teams, according to KenPom. Defense is more reliable than offense as teams have off-shooting nights all the time. But I’d expect a top-ranked defense to be locked in for an elimination game.
Furthermore, Miami’s defense cannot stop a nosebleed and struggle to close out defensive possessions. The Hurricanes are 298th in defensive effective field-goal shooting and 265th in defensive rebounding rate.
Essentially, I have more faith that Iowa State’s weak offense can find success against Miami’s terrible defense. However, I cannot say the same about Miami’s offense versus Iowa State’s defense.
Finally, Iowa State played a tougher conference schedule, had five more Quad 1 wins than Miami and college basketball guru Ken Pomeroy actually makes the Cyclones 1-point favorites in his game preview.
Again, I much prefer the Cyclones plus the points, but there’s value on IOWA STATE (+120).
Also see: Bet Slippin Podcast‘s March Madness: Sweet 16 betting primer
Against the spread
BET IOWA STATE +2.5 (-110) instead of or heavier than its ML because the Cyclones’ defense matches up well with Miami’s guard-heavy lineup and the presumed sharp side of the market is backing Iowa State.
According to Tipico, we have a Pros versus Joe’s scenario in the betting market as more than 70% of the bets placed are on Miami but a slight majority of the cash is on Iowa State.
Typically, in sports betting, it’s profitable to follow the money when it’s opposite the public. Furthermore, Iowa State is the least bet team in all of the eight Sweet 16 games and, generally, that’s where you find value in sports betting.
IOWA STATE PLUS THE POINTS is my favorite wager in this game.
Over/Under
Slight LEAN to the UNDER 133.5 (-115) because Iowa State’s defense is elite and the Cyclones are 1-7 O/U in their last eight games versus teams with a 60.0% or better winning percentage.
However, we’d be getting late to the party on the Under since the total opened at 136.5 and all the pro-Under money has caused oddsmakers to lower the total down to the current number.
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