Duke vs. Miami prediction, odds, line, spread: 2022 ACC Tournament picks, best bets from proven model
After a thrilling win on Thursday, the Miami (Fla.) Hurricanes aim to pull an upset on Friday in Brooklyn. Miami outlasted the Boston College Eagles on a buzzer-beater to reach the ACC Tournament semifinals, and the Hurricanes are 23-9 overall and 15-6 in ACC play this season. Miami’s prize is a matchup against top-seeded Duke, and the Hurricanes are 1-0 against the Blue Devils this season. Duke is 27-5 overall and 17-4 in conference play, including an 8-1 mark in the last nine contests.
Caesars Sportsbook lists the Blue Devils as nine-point favorites for this 7 p.m. ET tipoff. The total number of points Vegas thinks will be scored, or the over-under, is 150 in the latest Duke vs. Miami odds. Before making any Miami vs. Duke picks, be sure to check out the college basketball predictions and betting advice from the SportsLine Projection Model.
The model simulates every Division I college basketball game 10,000 times. Over the past five-plus years, the proprietary computer model has generated an impressive profit of almost $1,600 for $100 players on its top-rated college basketball picks against the spread. Anyone who has followed it has seen huge returns.
Now, the model has set its sights on Duke vs. Miami, and just revealed its picks and CBB predictions. You can visit SportsLine now to see the model’s picks. Here are the college basketball odds and betting lines for Miami vs. Duke:
- Duke vs. Miami spread: Duke -9
- Duke vs. Miami over-under: 150 points
- Duke vs. Miami money line: Duke -450, Miami +350
- MIA: The Hurricanes are 14-7 against the spread in ACC games
- DUKE: The Blue Devils are 11-10 against the spread in ACC games
Featured Game | Duke Blue Devils vs. Miami (Fla.) Hurricanes
Why Miami can cover
The Hurricanes are prolific on offense. Miami is No. 2 in the ACC in offensive efficiency, and the Hurricanes are in the top 20 nationally. Two-point shooting is a notable strength, with Miami making 55 percent of shots inside the 3-point arc, and the Hurricanes are No. 8 in the country in turnover rate at 14.3 percent. Duke struggles to create turnovers, ranking last in the ACC in turnover creation rate and steal rate, and the Blue Devils are below-average on the defensive glass.
On defense, Miami creates havoc, leading the ACC in both turnover creation rate (21.1 percent) and steal rate (14.3 percent). Duke is excellent on offense, but the Blue Devils are below-average at the free-throw line, and Duke is also No. 12 in the ACC in live-ball turnover rate, which could be exploited by Miami’s aggressive defense.
Why Duke can cover
Duke’s offense grabs headlines, but the defense is also quite potent. The Blue Devils lead the ACC in adjusted defensive efficiency, and Duke also leads the conference in 3-point defense, with opponents shooting only 29.2 percent. Duke is No. 2 in the country in free-throw prevention this season, and the Blue Devils are No. 2 in the ACC in both 2-point shooting allowed (47.2 percent) and block rate (13.0 percent).
Miami is the ACC’s second-worst offensive rebounding team, and Duke also has the kind of offense that can stump any opponent. The Blue Devils lead the ACC in offensive efficiency, while also ranking in the top five of the nation, and Duke is near the top of the heap in offensive rebounding, 3-point shooting, 2-point shooting and turnover prevention. Miami is strongly below-average in defensive rebound rate and 2-point defense, further strengthening Duke’s projection.
How to make Miami vs. Duke picks
SportsLine’s model is leaning under on the total. It also says one side of the spread hits almost 60 percent of the time. You can only get the model’s pick at SportsLine.
So who wins Duke vs. Miami? And which side of the spread hits almost 60 percent of the time? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the spread to jump on, all from the advanced model that is up almost $1,600 on its top-rated college basketball spread picks over the last five-plus years, and find out.
