The Miami Dolphins Playoff Outlook Through Dec. 19

December 20, 2021 Admin

The Dolphins evened their record at 7-7 with their 31-24 victory against the New York Jets, joining the 1974 Jets as the only teams in the NFL to reach 7-7 after starting a season 1-7.

With the win, the Dolphins clearly remain in the “playoff picture,” though their percentage of making the playoffs stand at 11 percent through the Sunday AFC games, according to FiveThirtyEight, and that percentage won’t change regardless of the outcome of the rescheduled Monday night game between the Cleveland Browns and the Las Vegas Raiders.

After playing six teams with a combined record of 26-58 (.310), the Dolphins will close out the season with road games against the New Orleans and Tennessee Titans before the finale at home against the New England Patriots.

Because they still only stand in 11th place in the AFC standings despite having won their past six games, the Dolphins basically have to win out to have a chance of making the playoffs. Their prospects of making the playoffs with a 9-8 record is 10 percent at best, per 538, and that’s if their one loss comes against the Saints next Monday night.

If the Dolphins can go 3-0 the rest of the way to cap a remarkable season-ending nine-game streak, their percentage goes up to 71 percent with other results around the AFC in the final three weeks not even taken into account.

But here’s a great nugget from 538, the Dolphins would have a 98 percent chance if they indeed finish 10-7 and the Buffalo Bills defeat the New England Patriots next Sunday at Gillette Stadium. A New England win in that game would drop the Dolphins’ playoff chances to 52 percent even if Miami ends up 10-7.

The reason the Bills-Pats game will have such a heavy influence on the Dolphins’ playoff prospects obviously is that multi-team tiebreakers for one or more wild-card berth first involves solving division tiebreakers first — and the Bills already have swept the Dolphins, who also would have a sweep of the Patriots if they finish 10-7.

There are still a lot of things to be settled, but we’ll get more clarity (maybe)in Week 16 when the schedules includes matchups like Baltimore and Cincinnati, Kansas City at Pittsburgh and Denver at Las Vegas, among others.

In the meantime, here’s a look at the standings as well as the remaining schedules for the AFC teams still in playoff contention.

REMAINING AFC PLAYOFF CONTENDER SCHEDULES

Kansas City (10-4): vs. Pittsburgh (7-6-1), at Cincinnati (8-6), at Denver (7-7)… Remaining opponent combined winning percentage: .536

New England (9-5): vs. Buffalo (8-6), vs. Jacksonville (2-12), at Miami (7-7)… Remaining opponent combined winning percentage: .405

Tennessee (9-5): vs. San Francisco (8-6), vs. Miami (7-7), at Houston (3-11)… Remaining opponent combined winning percentage: .429

Cincinnati (8-6): vs. Baltimore (8-6), vs. Kansas City (10-4), at Cleveland (7-6)… Remaining opponent combined winning percentage: .610

Indianapolis (8-6): at Arizona (10-4), vs. Las Vegas (6-7), at Jacksonville (2-12)… Remaining opponent combined winning percentage: .440

L.A. Chargers (8-6): at Houston (2-12), vs. Denver (7-7), at Las Vegas (6-7)… Remaining opponent combined winning percentage: .366

Buffalo (8-6): at New England (9-5), vs. Atlanta (6-8), vs. N.Y. Jets (3-11)… Remaining opponent combined winning percentage: .429

Baltimore (8-6): at Cincinnati (8-6), vs. L.A. Rams (9-4), vs. Pittsburgh (7-6-1)… Remaining opponent combined winning percentage: .598

Cleveland (7-6): vs. Las Vegas (6-7), at Green Bay (11-3), at Pittsburgh (7-6-1), vs. Cincinnati (8-6)… Remaining opponent combined winning percentage: .573

Pittsburgh (7-6-1): at Kansas City (10-4), vs. Cleveland (7-6), at Baltimore (8-6)… Remaining opponent combined winning percentage: .610

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